Tuesday, October 4, 2011

NFL Week 4 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-1)

Redskins @ Rams
Saints @ Jaguars
Broncos @ Packers
Steelers @ Texans
Panthers @ Bears
Colts @ Buccaneers


Bills @ Bengals
Given the Bills habit of giving up big early leads, it's no surprise the they lost sooner rather than later. What is a surprise is that rookie Andy Dalton has managed to lead the Bengals to a 2-2 record, and they've been in every game right to the end.

Split Picks: (APR: 5-4, SRS 5-4, Line 4-5)

Titans (APR, SRS) @ Browns (Line)
Matt Hasselbeck had a 50% completion rate, but the ones he did complete made the difference: 220 yards for 3 touchdowns. It didn't hurt that Chris Johnson had his first productive day of the season (23 carries 101 yards). This is also the difference having a decent QB makes: the Titans' offense didn't disappear just because Kenny Britt wasn't available.
49ers (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
The Eagles defense is really bad. The Giants have been the only team so far not to rush for at least 138 yards against them, and every opponent has had at least 318 total yards. Michael Vick's real problem is his offense needs to score at least 28 points every game just to have a chance to win.
Jets (APR, SRS) @ Ravens (Line)
Neither one of these offenses looked very good at all (Flacco and Sanchez were both below 33% completion rate). The Ravens had the benefit of an early lead, as well as experience hunkering down to protect that lead. The Jets, on the other hand, had no answer for the Ravens' smothering defense.
Giants (Line) @ Cardinals (APR, SRS)
I've got to blame this one on the Cardinals' defense. They had a 10-point lead with 5:16 to play. One more defensive stop puts the win away. Instead, the Giants were able to drive the field twice for touchdowns, and the Cardinals' offense wasn't able to respond.
Lions (SRS) @ Cowboys (APR, Line)
In spite of the fact that I am a Packer fan, I want to give Tony Romo the benefit of the doubt. This season is making it very hard to do that. Since 1940, there have been 5 games where the winning team gave away two pick-6es (Ironically, Tony Romo's Cowboys were the last to do it). As for the Lions, a beat-down of a very bad team and two miracle come-backs don't seem that impressive for them, either.
Falcons (SRS, Line) @ Seahawks (APR)
The Falcons had a 20-point second-half lead in this game, and very nearly let it slip away, only securing the win when Seattles' last-minute field goal attemt fell short. If the Falcons' don't start playing at a much higher level, real soon, they're going to have trouble even getting to 8 wins this year.

Patriots (Line) @ Raiders (APR, SRS)
To beat the Patriots, you've got to put touchdowns on the board. The Raiders moved the ball a lot, but too many of their drives ended with field goals, punts, or interceptions. As a result, the Raiders fell behind early, and never scored without allowing the Patriots at least one intervening touchdown.
Dolphins (SRS) @ Chargers (APR, Line)
I'm not really sure why SRS liked the Dolphins here. The Chargers haven't been very impressive, but the Dolphins have been awful—they're now 0-4, and the Browns are the only team that hasn't beaten them by at least 10 points.
Vikings (SRS, Line) @ Chiefs (APR)
And speaking of awful, it's remarkable how fast the Vikings' season has spun out of control. At least in their first three games, they looked good for a half. This week, they couldn't manage even one good quarter against one of the weakest teams in the league. At this point, the Vikings have to wonder if there's anybody left on their schedule they can beat.


APR (and SRS) gain a little ground on the Line this week!

APR 11-527-20-157.3%
SRS 11-530-17-163.5%