Tuesday, October 18, 2011

NFL Week 6 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

We have something of a theme this week in the pick results. That theme is "Throwing interceptions is bad. Throwing multiple interceptions is really, really bad."

Unanimous Picks (8-1)

Rams @ Packers
Colts @ Bengals
Browns @ Raiders
Cowboys @ Patriots
Jaguars @ Steelers
Texans @ Ravens
Vikings @ Bears
Dolphins @ Jets


Saints @ Buccaneers
Last week, I called the Buccaneers a bad team, and to be honest, this game doesn't really change my mind. it is possible to have a +4 turnover differential and still lose, but it sure hasn't happened very often. It's also worth noting that this is the first game this season the Bucs have had better than a +1 turnover differential.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-3, SRS 1-3, Line 3-1)

APR: 9-4 SRS: 9-4, Line 11-2
Bills (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
Of the three teams I called 'bad' last week, the Giants are least deserving. When they play well (e.g. when Eli's receivers don't tip the ball into the hands of opposing DBs), the Giants can be very good. The problem is, when they don't play well (as evidenced a week ago), they can be really, really bad.
As a side note, I should mention that I should've been more skeptical of a Bills team that twice needed 3-score comebacks to win, and faltered against the Bengals.
Eagles (Line) @ Redskins (APR, SRS)
There is a reason that Rex Grossman is no longer the starting quarterback for the Bears. It is what is technically known as "Bad Rex", and featured prominently in this game. I'm not sure this proves much of anything about the Eagles, except that they, too, can win a game if you give them four extra chances at possessing the ball.
49ers (SRS) @ Lions (APR, Line)
Both teams in this game seemed somewhat similar: fairly good defenses, and somewhat limited offenses. The difference was that the 49ers were able to make good use of their best offensive players (Ted Ginn on kick and punt returns, and Frank Gore running the ball), while limiting the Lions best players (Calvin Johnson had 113 yards receiving, but no touchdowns, and Jahvid Best had only 37 yards rushing).
Panthers (SRS) @ Falcons (APR, Line)
Four times this season, the Panthers have given up 28+ points, and each of those four times, they've lost. The problems have been widespread: special teams breakdowns, turnovers, and plain old defensive failure. This game is also the third time this season the Panthers have had a 4th-quarter lead and been unable to hold it. The Panthers may not be that far from having a winning team, but they need to learn how to keep it together for 60 minutes.


APR 9-445-28-161.5%
SRS 9-446-27-162.8%