| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers @ Bengals | Steelers ρ=1.2450 | Steelers* δ=10.7 | Steelers -4½ |
| Saints @ Panthers | Saints ρ=1.2276 | Saints* δ=10.7 | Saints -6½ |
| Cowboys @ Packers | Packers* ρ=1.2219 | Packers δ=9.9 | Packers -8 |
| Patriots @ Browns | Patriots ρ=1.2111 | Patriots* δ=10.5 | Patriots -4½ |
| Jets @ Lions | Jets ρ=1.1563 | Jets* δ=3.1 | Jets -4 |
| Buccaneers @ Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.1373 | Falcons δ=10.7 | Falcons -8½ |
| Giants @ Seahawks | Giants* ρ=1.1160 | Giants* δ=8.7 | Giants -7 |
| Bears @ Bills | Bears ρ=1.1023 | Bears* δ=9.1 | Bears -3 |
| Cardinals @ Vikings | Vikings ρ=1.1022 | Vikings δ=10.8 | Vikings -9 |
| Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs* ρ=1.0879 | Chiefs* δ=0.5 | Raiders -2½ |
| Dolphins @ Ravens | Ravens* ρ=1.0847 | Ravens δ=2.8 | Ravens -5 |
| Colts @ Eagles | Colts ρ=1.0760 | Colts* δ=2.4 | Eagles -2½ |
| Chargers @ Texans | Chargers* ρ=1.0392 | Chargers* δ=5.8 | Chargers -2½ |
Bye: Broncos, Jaguars, 49ers, Rams, Titans, Redskins
Comments:
As last week, *'s mean the Visitor/Home-split version of the algorithm disagrees with main "all games" version.
No surprise that APR-VH and SRS-VH both pick against the Chargers, who are still winless on the road.
Giants @ Seahawks is interesting. The Seahawks have played well in their 3 home games, and the Giant have their worst loss (@Colts) and an unimpressive win against a bad team (@Cowboys) on the road.
I'm a little surprised that APR-VH likes the Cowboys over the Packers. But the Packers have struggled at least twice in home games (vs the Lions and Dolphins), and the one time the Cowboys looked like an actual playoff contender was @ the Texans. Even now, this has the feel of a trap game for the Packers, who may already have penciled in their sixth win and started looking ahead to their bye week.
