I claimed in this week's power rankings that the Patriots aren't very dominant for the top-ranked team. By way of proof, here are the top-ranked teams for week 8 for each season from 1993 to 2010.
Each team is ranked according to its APR power index (ρ) after the week 8 round of games, from highest to lowest.
| Year | Team | Week 8 ρ | Week 8 W-L | Finished W-L | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Patriots | 1.1813 | 8-0 | 16-0 | #1 seed (2-1) |
| 2004 | Eagles | 1.1614 | 7-0 | 13-3 | #1 seed (2-1) |
| 2009 | Saints | 1.1571 | 7-0 | 13-3 | #1 seed (3-0) |
| 1998 | Broncos | 1.1274 | 7-0 | 14-2 | #1 seed (3-0) |
| 1996 | Packers | 1.1201 | 6-1 | 13-3 | #1 seed (3-0) |
| 1997 | Broncos | 1.1056 | 6-1 | 12-4 | #4 seed (4-0) |
| 1995 | Cowboys | 1.1009 | 6-1 | 12-4 | #1 seed (3-0) |
| 2005 | Broncos | 1.1005 | 6-2 | 13-3 | #2 seed (1-1) |
| 2000 | Vikings | 1.0872 | 7-0 | 11-5 | #2 seed (1-1) |
| 2001 | Rams | 1.0859 | 6-1 | 14-2 | #1 seed (2-1) |
| 2008 | Titans | 1.0831 | 7-0 | 13-3 | #1 seed (0-1) |
| 2003 | Chiefs | 1.0824 | 8-0 | 13-3 | #2 seed (0-1) |
| 2006 | Giants | 1.0724 | 5-2 | 8-8 | #6 seed (0-1) |
| 2002 | Bucs | 1.0715 | 6-2 | 12-4 | #2 seed (3-0) |
| 1994 | Chargers | 1.0570 | 6-1 | 11-5 | #2 seed (2-1) |
| 1999 | Chiefs | 1.0565 | 5-2 | 9-7 | Did not qualify |
| 1993 | Bills | 1.0560 | 5-1 | 12-4 | #1 seed (2-1) |
| 2010 | Patriots | 1.0478 | 6-1 | tbd | To be decided |
Comments:
It's good to be #1 in week 8. Every #1 team except the 1999 Chiefs (and pending the results for the 2010 Patriots) made it to the playoffs. A lot of them made it to the Super Bowl.
Also note that while there are a few teams on the bottom of the list that made it to the Super Bowl (1993 Bills, 1994 Chargers, and 2002 Bucs), most of the bottom-ranked teams did not.
While the 2010 Patriots are easily the lowest-ranked team on this list, they aren't that far behind—their power index would qualify for the #2 or #3 spot on most of those years.
But it does tend to confirm the perception that there really aren't any dominant teams this year.
To give an idea of where the cut-off for the Super Bowl winner might be, here's a table of all Super Bowl winners 1993-2009, according to their week 8 power index (ρ).
Year Rank Team &rho W-L 2009 1 Saints 1.1571 7-0 1998 1 Broncos 1.1274 7-0 1996 1 Packers 1.1201 6-1 1997 1 Broncos 1.1056 6-1 1995 1 Cowboys 1.1009 6-1 2002 1 Buccaneers 1.0715 6-2 2006 2 Colts 1.0609 7-0 1993 4 Cowboys 1.0229 4-2 1999 6 Rams 1.0136 6-1 2005 6 Steelers 1.0113 5-2 2004 4 Patriots 1.0094 6-1 2003 5 Patriots 0.9991 6-2 1994 4 49ers 0.9989 6-2 2008 6 Steelers 0.9772 5-2 2001 5 Patrots 0.9724 4-4 2007 10 Giants 0.9485 6-2 2000 12 Ravens 0.9328 5-3 Which means every team that's not in the top 6 right now has to be regarded as a long-shot (at best) to win the Super Bowl.
Also note that, with the exception of the 2001 Patriots, every team is at least a couple wins over .500.
