All Line values from yahoo.com, except Titans @ Texans, Panther @ Browns, and Dolphins @ Raiders, which were taken from footballlocks.com.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers @ Browns | Browns ρ=1.2958 | Browns δ=15.8 | Browns -11 |
| Bengals @ Jets | Jets ρ=1.2449 | Jets δ=10.8 | Jets -9 |
| Patriots @ Lions | Patriots ρ=1.1960 | Patriots* δ=5.7 | Patriots -7 |
| Steelers @ Bills | Steelers ρ=1.1815 | Steelers* δ=12.4 | Steelers -6½ |
| Buccaneers @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.1574 | Ravens δ=9.7 | Ravens -7½ |
| Titans @ Texans | Titans ρ=1.1280 | Titans* δ=9.6 | Texans -6½ |
| Chiefs @ Seahawks | Chiefs* ρ=1.1194 | Chiefs* δ=9.1 | Chiefs -1 |
| Eagles @ Bears | Eagles ρ=1.0781 | Eagles* δ=4.8 | Eagles -3 |
| Chargers @ Colts | Colts ρ=1.0760 | Colts δ=1.2 | Colts -3 |
| Saints @ Cowboys | Saints ρ=1.0708 | Saints* δ=4.3 | Saints -3½ |
| 49ers @ Cardinals | 49ers* ρ=1.0584 | 49ers* δ=3.9 | 49ers -1 |
| Vikings @ Redskins | Redskins* ρ=1.0537 | Redskins δ=1.4 | Redskins -2½ |
| Jaguars @ Giants | Giants* ρ=1.0508 | Giants δ=6.5 | Giants -7½ |
| Rams @ Broncos | Rams* ρ=1.0280 | Rams* δ=0.2 | Broncos -4 |
| Dolphins @ Raiders | Dolphins ρ=1.0165 | Dolphins* δ=1.3 | Raiders -3 |
| Packers @ Falcons | Packers ρ=1.0149 | Packers* δ=5.7 | Falcons -2½ |
Comments:
Each pick method column is sortable on the confidence value (ρ, δ, or point spread). Just click the link at the head of the appropriate column.
It's pretty tough to be thankful for that schedule of Thursday games. The Lions, Cowboys, and Bengals combined have 7 wins. Hopefully at least the newly resurgent Cowboys can make a game of it against the Saints.
Packers @ Falcons and Eagles @ Bears feature four of the highest-ranked NFC teams, and should give the winners an inside track on the top-ranked playoff seeds.
In case you somehow haven't heard, Vince Young has been placed on IR and Kerry Collins is still hurt, so the Titans will be starting rookie QB Rusty Smith, backed up by perennial also-ran Chris Simms. Which means the Texans may finally be facing an opponent they can hold under 30 points this week.
