Wednesday, September 29, 2010

NFL: Week 4 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
49ers @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.7346
Falcons
δ=30.2
Falcons
-7
Bears @
Giants
Bears
ρ=1.5229
Bears
δ=19.8
Giants
-3½
Broncos @
Titans
Titans
ρ=1.4966
Titans
δ=18.3
Titans
-6½
Panthers @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.4688
Saints
δ=21.8
Saints
-13½
Jets @
Bills
Jets
ρ=1.3515
Jets
δ=16.6
Jets
-4½
Lions @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.3292
Packers
δ=14.0
Packers
-14½
Colts @
Jaguars
Colts
ρ=1.2877
Colts
δ=18.1
Colts
-8½
Ravens @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.2305
Steelers
δ=19.8
Steelers
-1½
Cardinals @
Chargers
Cardinals
ρ=1.2102
Chargers
δ=8.4
Chargers
-8
Redskins @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.2060
Eagles
δ=10.0
Eagles
-6
Seahawks @
Rams
Rams
ρ=1.1091
Seahawks
δ=3.6
Seahawks
-1
Texans @
Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.0468
Texans
δ=8.4
Texans
-3
Bengals @
Browns
Bengals
ρ=1.0457
Browns
δ=1.0
Bengals
-3
Patriots @
Dolphins
Patriots
ρ=1.0161
Patriots
δ=0.2
Patriots
-1

Bye: Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, Buccaneers

Comments:

  • 10 Unanimous picks this week—things are starting to settle down.

  • The Line likes the Giants this week? Well, the Bears could be overrated, and they are traveling on a short week after a big divisional win. On the other hand, the Giants have given every indication that they're really bad this year.

  • The Seahawks have a couple very questionable home wins, and a bad road loss to the not-very-good Broncos. I think the Rams' resurgent defense could be enough to give them an actual 2-game winning streak.

  • Everybody likes the Patriots over the Dolphins. It will be something of a bellwether if the Pats do win—you have to go back to 2008 to find their last solid road win.