| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers @ Bears | Packers ρ=1.1128 | Packers* δ=7.8 | Packers -3½ |
| Jets @ Steelers | Steelers* ρ=1.0147 | Steelers δ=3.1 | Steelers -3½ |
Comments:
The Line favors the Packers to win a playoff game for the first time since the 2007 NFC Championship Game.
The Jets have not had a home playoff game since January 4, 2003. This will be their 10th playoff game since then, and their second trip to the AFC Championship in as many years.
The Jets are coming off a couple of emotional wins, beating the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, followed by the team that strapped an embarrassing 45-3 loss on them in the regular season. I think it's going to be tough for them to avoid a let-down.
The Steelers also have an advantage that they've already overcome one strong defense in the playoffs, while the Jets are facing their first real defensive test of the postseason.
The Packers offense can't expect the Bears' defense to fall apart like the Falcons' defense did. Both regular season meetings between these two were low-scoring, defense-dominated affairs. This game may come down to which team can be the most patient on offense.
It was mostly overshadowed by the Seahawks terrible defense, but last Sunday, the Bears had a sloppy game on offense. Cutler was barely over a 50% completion rate, Matt Forté fell well short of 4 yards per carry, and the only reason Cutler got anywhere near 300 yards passing was because of the Seahawks' terrible tackling. The Bears will have to do better against the Packers' much better defense to have a chance.
