Monday, January 17, 2011

NFL: Divisional Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Ravens @ Steelers (APR, SRS, Line)
The Ravens really could have won this. They had a 14-point lead at halftime, with more points than either team scored in their first two meetings. All the Ravens had to do in the second half was run the ball, grind the clock, maybe put up a field goal or two, and play good defense. Except for one field goal, none of those things happened.
The Ravens' longest second-half drive was just 23 yards. Their offense had two fumbles, an interception, and turned the ball over on downs. And their defense, with the game on the line, gave up an 11-play, 65 yard touchdown drive that sealed the win for the Steelers.
Packers (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)
The last couple games for the Packers have been all about defense. This week, the offense finally got rolling: the Packers offense put up 442 yards, scored on 5 consecutive drives, and fell just short of a 2:1 advantage in time of possession. The defense did pretty good too, with a Tramon Williams interception ending a Falcons drive while the game was still close, and a second going back for a touchdown that really started the rout.
The Falcons, on the other hand—very little went right for them in this game. A fumble recovery gave them a short field for their first touchdown, a kickoff coverage breakdown gave them their second touchdown, and after that... it was very ugly for the home team. Their offensive numbers (apart from the two interceptions) are not bad, but the Falcons really needed this to be another low-scoring defense-dominated game to have a chance, and that just didn't happen.
Seahawks @ Bears (APR, SRS, Line)
The Seahawks are who everybody thought they were, if a week too late for the Saints. The Seahawks got the ball first, went 3-and-out, and that's as close as it ever got. Until well into the fourth quarter, the Seahawks longest drive was 36 yards.
The Bears made some mistakes too (a pass that should've been intercepted, and a disastrous option pass that was), but the Seahawks were mostly not able to take advantage. This was an easy win for the Bears, and it was only some laxness at the end of the game that made the score as close as it was.
Jets @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)
The Patriots first touchdown drive came late in the 3rd quarter. Prior to that, they had 7 drives produce 159 yards and 3 points. And, in spite of 3 quarters of (mostly) offensive futility, they went into the 4th quarter down just 3 points.
But the Jets were able to respond with relative ease, driving 75 yards in 5 plays for an answering touchdown. The next drive, as much as anything, lost the game for the Patriots. Down 10 points, and with less than 15 minutes to play, they used an astonishing 7:45 in 14 plays on a drive that produced zero points.
By the next time the Patriots got the ball, there was just 3:29 left in the game, and they didn't have enough offensive firepower to overcome a 10-point deficit.


APR 3-16-275.0%
APR VH2-25-362.5%
SRS 3-16-275.0%
SRS VH2-23-537.5%
Line 2-23-537.5%