Tuesday, October 5, 2010

NFL: Week 4 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Saints (+17)
I've become pretty confident that a bunch of close wins over bad teams is not a good sign. And the Saints have 3 close wins over teams that are a combined 1-10. Maybe they can pull it out, but right now there's no way they belong anywhere in the top 10.
Dolphins (+9)
Same deal with the Dolphins: a 5-point win over a very bad Bills team does not impress. And then ESPN drops them just two spots on an embarrassing 27-point beat down in their home stadium?
On the bubble:
Vikings (+8)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Browns (-17)
As I mentioned in the Week 4 Power Rankings, it's at least possible the Browns could be a good team. At the very least, ESPN's rank of #27 is too low—there's clearly more than 6 teams that are worse than them right now.
Bengals (-11)
The Bengals have their problems, and #7 (where APR has them) is probably too high, but they do have two wins, one over a very good Ravens squad.
On the bubble:
Rams, Titans, Buccaneers (-8)