| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks @ Bears | Bears ρ=1.3139 | Bears δ=12.7 | Bears -10 |
| Jets @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.1826 | Patriots δ=9.1 | Patriots -8½ |
| Packers @ Falcons | Packers ρ=1.0646 | Packers* δ=4.7 | Falcons -2½ |
| Ravens @ Steelers | Steelers* ρ=1.0041 | Steelers δ=3.0 | Steelers -3 |
Comments:
Yeah, it looks like it will be a much happier week for the home teams this time around.
Seahawks @ Bears has APR's biggest matchup ratio (ρ) value of any playoff game at least since the 1970 merger. The previous record-holder was this Cardinals at Vikings game from the 1998 season (ρ=1.2795).
The Seahawks might have a chance, though. The Bears' passing defense is not real strong, and Hasselbeck has had a couple of games this season (including last week) where he really was on fire. On the other hand, the Seahawks defense is bad enough they will likely need another score of 40+ to win.
The Jets might need to score 40+ to win too. The Patriots have scored 31 or more points since week 10 (they lost to the Browns in week 9).
The Packers have actually done well (sometimes) running the ball this season. In the regular season, they were 7-2 when rushing the ball for 90+ yards, and 5-3 when rushing at least 26 times. In their their week 12 game at the Falcons, the Packers rushed 23 times for 77 yards, mostly with Rodgers.
The Falcon's best strategy is probably similar to the first time around: run Michael Turner, use a lot of play-action, and keep the Packers offense off the field, and take advantage of mistakes. Especially after the way Turner gashed the Packers' defense in week 12, it will be interesting to see how well Dom Capers can scheme to stop him this time.
The Steelers will have a lot going for them this week. Coming off a bye, playing at home, and (unlike their first meeting with the Ravens), they have Ben Roethisberger ready to play. Still, this looks to be another close game, and I think Troy Polamalu will need another big game for the Steelers to come away with a win.
