Thursday, January 27, 2011

NFL Wrapup: Significance of the first two games

This is a breakdown of how teams did, grouped by their standings after the week 2 games. I originally did this for the 1993-2008 seasons, which showed some interestign results.

TeamStandingNote
WW Steelers+12- 4
TeamsBears+ 11- 5
(8) Saints 11- 5
Chiefs 10- 6
Packers+ 10- 6
Buccaneers 10- 6
Dolphins 7- 9
Texans 6-10Average wins: 9.6
WL Patriots 14- 2
TeamsRavens+ 12- 4
(8) Giants 10- 6
Jaguars 8- 8
Seahawks+ 7- 9
Titans 6-10
Redskins 6-10
Cardinals 5-11Average wins: 8.5
LW Falcons 13- 3
TeamsJets+ 11- 5
(8) Colts 10- 6
Eagles 10- 6
Chargers 9- 7
Raiders 8- 8
Broncos 4-12
Bengals 4-12Average wins: 8.6
LL Rams 7- 9
TeamsCowboys 6-10
(8) Vikings 6-10
Lions 6-10
49ers 6-10
Browns 5-11
Bills 4-12
Panthers 2-14Average wins: 5.3

Comments

  • Playoff teams are listed in bold. Teams with a + are teams that won at least one playoff game.

  • Starting off 2-0 or 0-2 continues to be an excellent indicator of how a team will finish. Only two of the 2-0 teams didn't finish with a winning record, while all eight of the 0-2 teams finished with a losing record.

  • Unlike the historical data, but like last year, the winning percentage of the WL teams look at least a little better than the LW teams. The 1993-2008 historical data is not the biggest data set in the world, so perhaps that was just a fluke. It could also be that whatever was causing the LW bias has disappeared, perhaps because of the 2002 division realignments.

  • On the other hand, the LW group is fielded four playoff teams, compared with the three for the WL group (including the Seahawks). Also note that the WL group has four teams below 0.500, while the LW group only has only two.