It's a little earlier than I usually post game pick(s), but why not...
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers @ Steelers | Packers ρ=1.0737 | Packers* δ=1.6 | Packers -2½ |
Comments:
This is one of the lowest matchup ratios (ρ) for the 2010 playoffs. Ravens @ Steelers, Jets @ Steelers, and Packers @ Falcons were the only ones lower.
If the Packers win the Super Bowl, it will be the first time since Super Bowls XXX (Cowboys) and XXXI (Packers) that NFC teams have won in consecutive years.
APR has not picked against the Packers since their Week 15 game at the Patriots. Before this pick, APR has not picked against the Steelers since their Week 13 game at the Ravens.
According to this site (caution: distracting animated advertisements), there hasn't been a Super Bowl with a point spread under 3 points since XVII (Redskins vs Dolphins, '82 season). Interestingly, two recent Super Bowls with relatively narrow point spreads (Giants vs. Ravens and Buccaneers vs. Raiders) finished as blow-out wins.
The Packers will be, by far, the strongest passing offense the Steelers have faced in the postseason. According to nfl.com, in the regular season the Jets passed for 3,242 yards (#22), the Ravens passed for 3,335 yards (#20), and the Packers passed for 4,124 yards (#5).
This year, including the playoffs, the packers are 10-0 when Aaron Rodgers throws at least two touchdown passes. (Note the careful wording—Matt Flynn threw for three touchdowns in the loss to the Patriots).
Last year, the Packers played the Steelers win week 15. But instead of being a defensive struggle, the two teams combined for 937 yards and 73 points. It was a classic "last team with the ball wins" type game, and the Steelers were the last one with the ball, and they won.
A high-scoring game may benefit the Steelers again. Including the playoffs, they are 12-1 this season when scoring 19 or more points (the one loss coming to the Patriots in week 10).
