NFL Wrapup: Significance of the first two games

This is a breakdown of how teams did, grouped by their standings after the week 2 games. Click here to see all the posts on this topic.

	Team	Standing	Note
WW	Packers	15- 1
Teams	Patriots+	13- 3
(7)	Texans+	10- 6
	Lions	10- 6
	Jets	8- 8
	Bills	6-10
	Redskins	5-11	Avg wins: 9.6
WL	Ravens+	12- 4
Teams	49ers+	11- 3
(9)	Bengals	9- 7
	Cardinals	8- 8
	Chargers	8- 8
	Raiders	8- 8
	Bears	8- 8
	Eagles	8- 8
	Jaguars	5-11	Avg wins: 8.6
LW	Steelers	12- 4
Teams	Saints+	11- 3
(9)	Falcons	10- 6
	Giants+	9- 7
	Titans	9- 7
	Broncos+	8- 8
	Cowboys	8- 8
	Browns	4-12
	Buccaneers	4-12	Avg wins: 8.3
LL	Seahawks	7- 9
Teams	Chiefs	7- 9
(7)	Dolphins	6-10
	Panthers	6-10
	Vikings	3-13
	Rams	2-14
	Colts	2-14	Avg wins: 4.7

Comments

• Playoff teams are listed in bold. Teams with a + are teams that won at least one playoff game.

• This year's WL and LW grouping looks a little more like the results for the historical data set. In both cases, the data is centered around 8 wins or so, but with the LW set noticably more spread out. (Note that only 3 of the WL teams more than a game away from 8 wins.)

NFL Wrapup: Significance of the first two games

This is a breakdown of how teams did, grouped by their standings after the week 2 games. I originally did this for the 1993-2008 seasons, which showed some interestign results.

	Team	Standing	Note
WW	Steelers+	12- 4
Teams	Bears+	11- 5
(8)	Saints	11- 5
	Chiefs	10- 6
	Packers+	10- 6
	Buccaneers	10- 6
	Dolphins	7- 9
	Texans	6-10	Average wins: 9.6
WL	Patriots	14- 2
Teams	Ravens+	12- 4
(8)	Giants	10- 6
	Jaguars	8- 8
	Seahawks+	7- 9
	Titans	6-10
	Redskins	6-10
	Cardinals	5-11	Average wins: 8.5
LW	Falcons	13- 3
Teams	Jets+	11- 5
(8)	Colts	10- 6
	Eagles	10- 6
	Chargers	9- 7
	Raiders	8- 8
	Broncos	4-12
	Bengals	4-12	Average wins: 8.6
LL	Rams	7- 9
Teams	Cowboys	6-10
(8)	Vikings	6-10
	Lions	6-10
	49ers	6-10
	Browns	5-11
	Bills	4-12
	Panthers	2-14	Average wins: 5.3

Comments

• Playoff teams are listed in bold. Teams with a + are teams that won at least one playoff game.

• Starting off 2-0 or 0-2 continues to be an excellent indicator of how a team will finish. Only two of the 2-0 teams didn't finish with a winning record, while all eight of the 0-2 teams finished with a losing record.

• Unlike the historical data, but like last year, the winning percentage of the WL teams look at least a little better than the LW teams. The 1993-2008 historical data is not the biggest data set in the world, so perhaps that was just a fluke. It could also be that whatever was causing the LW bias has disappeared, perhaps because of the 2002 division realignments.

• On the other hand, the LW group is fielded four playoff teams, compared with the three for the WL group (including the Seahawks). Also note that the WL group has four teams below 0.500, while the LW group only has only two.

NFL Wrapup: Significance of the first two games

Last September, I did a post on how the first two games of the season correlated to final standings. As a follow-up, here's how the 2009 season turned out:

	Team	Standing	Note
WW	Colts	14- 2
Teams	Saints	13- 3
(9)	Vikings	12- 4
	Jets	9- 7
	Ravens	9- 7
	Falcons	9- 7
	Broncos	8- 8
	Giants	8- 8
	49ers	8- 8	avg wins: 10.0
WL	Chargers	13- 3
Teams	Eagles	11- 5
(7)	Cowboys	11- 5
	Packers	11- 5
	Patriots	10- 6
	Steelers	9- 7
	Seahawks	5-11	avg wins: 10.0
LW	Bengals	10- 6
Teams	Cardinals	10- 6
(7)	Texans	9- 7
	Bears	7- 9
	Bills	6-10
	Raiders	5-11
	Redskins	4-12	avg wins: 7.3
LL	Panthers	8- 8
Teams	Titans	8- 8
(9)	Dolphins	7- 9
	Jaguars	7- 9
	Browns	5-11
	Chiefs	4-12
	Buccaneers	3-13
	Lions	2-14
	Rams	1-15	avg wins: 5.0

Comments:

• I'm somewhat surprised at how well the first two games correlate to overall success. But it's good to see such strong evidence for one of FSPI's basic assumptions (i.e., that you can tell something about how good a team is from just one or two games).

• It seems a little unusual that most teams fall into the 'WW' or 'LL' categories. I would have expected more of a Normal distribution, with most teams in the 'WL' and 'LW' categories.

• As with the previous historical analysis, there is a significant difference between the 'WL' and the 'LW' groups, although unlike the historical data, this year it was the 'WL' teams that did noticeably better.

NFL: How much do the first two games matter?

We're two games into the season. Players are still shaking off the rust, some are learning new systems, getting used to new coaches. There's still lots of football left to play, right?

I was curious about how a teams early results correlated to their final standings, so I took the historical record from 1993 to 2008 (inclusive), and divided them up into four categories based on the results of the first two games:

1. Two wins
2. Win then loss
3. Loss then win
4. Two losses

I then counted the number of wins for all teams in each category. Since there were only a handful of tie games during this era, they are ignored.

I should also say I know the data should be plotted as a column chart or histogram, but I couldn't figure out how to make any of my chart-making programs create a chart that was both correct and not awful.

It's good to be 2-0

Not exactly a stop-the-presses insight, I know. What's interesting is how good it is to be 2-0:

Click on image to see full resolution

The graph peaks only one win better than 8-8, but note that the bulk of the teams are at 8 wins or better. Of the 137 teams in this data set, only 25 (18.2%) didn't make it to at least 8-8.

Teams that tanked the hardest after starting 2-0:

• The 1998 Chargers won 5 games
• The 2001 Chargers won 5 games
• The 2002 Bears won 4 games
• The 2003 Redskins won 5 games
• The 2007 49ers won 5 games

1-1: WL vs LW is not the same

As indicated above, I split the 1-1 teams that lost in Week 1 (LW) from the teams that lost in Week 2 (WL). Here's the result:

Click on image to see full resolution

As you can see, both data sets are more-or-less centered around the 8-8 mark, but the WL teams have finished with 8, 9, or 10 wins a lot more than the LW teams (which actually has a small dip for 8 and 9 wins).

Also note that while 16 WL teams have made it to at least 11 wins, 24 (half again as many) LW teams have made it to 11 wins.

It's not good to be 0-2

Most teams that start 0-2 never make it to 8 wins:

Click on image to see full resolution

A few teams that started 0-2 have managed to pull things out:

• The 1993 Cowboys won 12 games (won Super Bowl XXVIII)
• The 1996 Patriots won 11 games (lost Super Bowl XXXI)
• The 1998 Jets won 12 games (lost AFC CG)
• The 2001 Patriots won 11 games (won Super Bowl XXXVI)
• The 2003 Eagles won 12 games (lost AFC CG)
• The 2008 Dolphins won 11 games (lost Wildcard game)

Conclusion

The way the first two games of the season play out are in many cases a strong indication of what you can expect for the remaining 14 games. Winning teams win games, while losing teams lose games, almost always right from week 1.

And there is a surprising difference between WL and LW teams (perhaps the psychological shock of starting 0-1 pushes those LW teams more than the teams that lose their second game?).