Wednesday, September 15, 2010

NFL: Week 2 Game Picks

All line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
Saints @
49ers
Saints
ρ=1.7648
Saints
δ=30
Saints
-5
Ravens @
Bengals
Ravens
ρ=1.7144
Ravens
δ=15
Ravens
-1½
Bills @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.4536
Packers
δ=12
Packers
-13½
Eagles @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.4433
Lions
δ=2
Eagles
-4½
Giants @
Colts
Giants
ρ=1.3858
Giants
δ=23
Colts
-5½
Jaguars @
Chargers
Jaguars
ρ=1.3774
Jaguars
δ=14
Chargers
-8½
Patriots @
Jets
Patriots
ρ=1.3764
Patriots
δ=15
Patriots
-2
Buccaneers @
Panthers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.3187
Buccaneers
δ=16
Panthers
-3
Seahawks @
Broncos
Seahawks
ρ=1.2966
Seahawks
δ=32
Broncos
-3½
Rams @
Raiders
Rams
ρ=1.2905
Rams
δ=21
Raiders
-3½
Chiefs @
Browns
Chiefs
ρ=1.1746
Chiefs
δ=10
Browns
-2
Dolphins @
Vikings
Dolphins
ρ=1.1171
Dolphins
δ=10
Vikings
-5½
Cardinals @
Falcons
Cardinals
ρ=1.1171
Cardinals
δ=10
Falcons
-6½
Bears @
Cowboys
Bears
ρ=1.1111
Bears
δ=11
Cowboys
-8½
Texans @
Redskins
Texans
ρ=1.0572
Texans
δ=4
Texans
-3
Steelers @
Titans
Steelers
ρ=1.0049
Titans
δ=19
Titans
-5

Comments:

  • Picks are based on the Week 1 power rankings.

  • All 1-0 teams are ranked above all 0-1 teams, so there are some... odd picks, like the Dolphins over the Vikings.

  • APR and SRS are agreed on all games except Steelers @ Titans.

  • After the way the 49ers got clobbered on Sunday, I'm really surprised the Saints are only favored by 5.

  • On the other hand, it says something about how bad the Bills looked that even after the Packers lost Ryan Grant, they're still favored by 13½.