APR: Home vs. Visitor
Here's the breakdown of pick accuracy for picking the visiting or home teams:
| Visitor Won | Home Won | Total | |
| Picked Visitor | 67 | 63 | 130 |
| Picked Home | 42 | 68 | 110 |
| Total | 109 | 131 | 240 |
So, the good news is, when APR picked the home team, it was right a reasonably good 61.8% of the time (though still short of the Line's 65.0% record). The bad news is, when APR picked the road team, it was little better than a coin-flip.
APR also picked the home team less than half the time
Picks by Matchup Ratio
The matchup ratio (ρ) for each game is the quotient of the corresponding power indexes for each team (larger divided by the smaller). It is intended to be an indication of "pick confidence": ρ values near 1.0 involve teams judged to be very close in power, while large values indicate more of a mismatch.
| Confidence Range | Picked Right | Picked Wrong | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ρ | <1.02 | 8 | 9 | 47.1% | |
| 1.02<= | ρ | <1.04 | 9 | 12 | 42.9% |
| 1.04<= | ρ | <1.06 | 14 | 8 | 63.6% |
| 1.06<= | ρ | <1.08 | 9 | 14 | 39.1% |
| 1.08<= | ρ | <1.11 | 14 | 13 | 51.9% |
| 1.11<= | ρ | <1.15 | 27 | 16 | 61.8% |
| 1.15<= | ρ | <1.20 | 16 | 9 | 64.0% |
| 1.20<= | ρ | <1.30 | 19 | 13 | 59.3% |
| 1.30<= | ρ | 19 | 11 | 63.3% | |
There's a pretty clear cut-off right around ρ ≥ 1.11 where the confidence value really seems to work well; pick results are at or above a 60% success rate.
The bad news is, particularly for ρ < 1.08, the confidence value was actually a negative indicator of which team would win, at least this year.
I need to run the pick results for more seasons to find out how much of this is how APR works, and how much it was a quirk of this season. But that's going to have to wait for another time if I want to get this posted while it's still February...
