Wednesday, October 27, 2010

NFL: Week 8 Game Picks

Week 8! Wow, how did that happen already?

All line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
Steelers @
Saints
Steelers
ρ=1.3033
Steelers*
δ=14.5
Steelers
-1
Bills @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.2678
Chiefs
δ=15.0
Chiefs
-7½
Panthers @
Rams
Rams
ρ=1.2115
Rams
δ=8.1
Rams
-3
Titans @
Chargers
Titans
ρ=1.2081
Titans*
δ=10.6
Chargers
-3½
Packers @
Jets
Jets
ρ=1.1671
Jets
δ=4.4
Jets
-6
Vikings @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.1447
Patriots
δ=5.6
Patriots
-5
Texans @
Colts
Colts
ρ=1.1249
Colts
δ=5.0
Colts
-5½
Jaguars @
Cowboys
Cowboys*
ρ=1.0831
Cowboys
δ=10.9
Cowboys
-6½
Dolphins @
Bengals
Dolphins
ρ=1.0591
Dolphins*
δ=2.3
Bengals
-1½
Broncos @
49ers
Broncos
ρ=1.0544
Broncos*
δ=1.9
Broncos
-1
Redskins @
Lions
Redskins*
ρ=1.0488
Lions
δ=1.6
Lions
-2½
Seahawks @
Raiders
Seahawks*
ρ=1.0177
Raiders
δ=2.0
Raiders
-1½
Buccaneers @
Cardinals
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0049
Buccaneers*
δ=3.8
Cardinals
-3

Bye: Falcons, Ravens, Bears, Browns, Giants, Eagles

What the '*'s Mean:

I've added some new information to the game picks. All picks listed above are generated as usual—rankings are computed for each team using all games played, and the team with the better rank is picked to win.

However, I've also extended the code that computes APR and SRS to compute Home/Visitor splits on their respective power rankings. Picks are also made using the "Visitor" power of the road team and the "Home" power of the home team. The '*' listed above indicate instances where the Home/Visitor pick method disagrees with the straight-power method.

By the Home/Visitor method (and using the week 7 data), the Seahawks, Rams, and Colts are the worst road teams of the league. The Texans, Cowboys, and Titans are the worst home teams.

This is still in the experimental stages, and while I'm hoping it will allow APR (and SRS) to eventually make more accurate picks, this is still very much a beta-level feature.

Comments:

  • Steelers -1? Ben Roethlisberger did look a little rusty last week, but unless the Saints have a big turn-around this week, the Steelers should win easily.

  • Chargers -3½?! Their run defense has looked OK so far, but they haven't faced Chris Johnson yet, either. And, as observed above, the Titans have done quite well on the road this year.

  • Bengals are favored? They did beat the Ravens in week 2, but that's the only spark of life they've showed all season, and that's getting to be a while ago now...