Hey, kids—it's time for week 1 picks!
Like last year, week 1 picks will be based on Pythagorean Projection. As usual, picks are sorted by the confidence factor of the left-most column, from highest to lowest.
Pythag (std): these picks are based on the standard Pythagorean Projection. The confidence numbers are just the differences of the projection values for each team.
Pythag (R/H): these picks are based on a variation of the Pythagorean Projection. Two projections are created for each team, splitting teams based on road games and home games. Here, the road projection of the road team is compared to the home projection of the home team.
The untitiled column with the asterisks indicate where the standard and R/H projections differ.
Line: as usual, line values are taken from yahoo, and are used for comparison purposes only.
| Game | Pythag (std) | Pythag (R/H) | Line | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals @ Rams | Cardinals (0.4809) | Cardinals (0.5777) | Cardinals -4 | |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Chargers (0.4004) | Chargers (0.5264) | Chargers -5 | |
| Cowboys @ Redskins | Cowboys (0.3399) | Cowboys (0.3062) | Cowboys -3½ | |
| 49ers @ Seahawks | 49ers (0.2809) | Seahawks (0.1561) | * | 49ers -3 |
| Raiders @ Titans | Titans (0.2503) | Titans (0.4226) | Titans -6½ | |
| Lions @ Bears | Bears (0.2376) | Bears (0.5137) | Bears -6 | |
| Bengals @ Patriots | Patriots (0.1949) | Patriots (0.5475) | Patriots -4 | |
| Broncos @ Jaguars | Broncos (0.1585) | Broncos (0.0256) | Jaguars -2½ | |
| Packers @ Eagles | Packers (0.1000) | Packers (0.0851) | Packers -3 | |
| Dolphins @ Bills | Dolphins (0.0879) | Bills (0.1129) | * | Dolphins -3 |
| Colts @ Texans | Colts (0.0830) | Colts (0.1400) | Colts -2½ | |
| Panthers @ Giants | Panthers (0.0490) | Giants (0.0202) | * | Giants -7 |
| Browns @ Buccaneers | Browns (0.0306) | Browns (0.0751) | Buccaneers -3 | |
| Falcons @ Steelers | Steelers (0.0097) | Steelers (0.1108) | Falcons -2½ | |
| Ravens @ Jets | Ravens (0.0076) | Jets (0.2208) | * | Jets -2½ |
| Vikings @ Saints | Vikings (0.0034) | Saints (0.1562) | * | Saints -4½ |
Comments:
I will update with the lines for the two Monday Night games as soon as I see them up. Update: done.
The 49ers went just 2-6 on the road last year. One of those 6 losses was at the Seahawks. They may be the favorite to win the NFC West, but this is a game the 49ers need to win if that is to mean anything more than a one-and-done appearance on Wildcard Weekend.
Last year, the Vikings faded a bit towards the end of the season, going 0-3 in prime time road games (at least two of which should have been reasonably easy wins).
The Saints had their late-season troubles too, finishing 0-3 while the #1 seed was still open. They also didn't really look that good in the NFC Championship Game—the only reason they were in it at the end is because the Vikings kept turning the ball over to them.
