Thursday, January 8, 2009

NCAA: Final Top 30+

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of SRS.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to NCAA.

SRS absolutely owned the Bowl game picks (results below). Thus, I present the SRS-based Top 30+:

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑1)Florida
AP=1
13-138.7582
(LW + 0.970)
won by 10
at Oklahoma
2 (↓1)Oklahoma
AP=5
12-236.6529
(LW - 1.603)
lost by 10
vs Florida
3 (↑1)USC
AP=3
12-134.1979
(LW + 0.718)
won by 14
vs Penn-St
4 (↓1)Texas
AP=4
12-132.0386
(LW - 1.746)
won by 3
vs Ohio-St
5 (-)Penn-St
AP=8
11-228.3959
(LW - 1.589)
lost by 14
at USC
6 (↑1)TCU
AP=7
11-222.5440
(LW - 0.508)
won by 1
vs Boise-St
7 (↓1)Texas-Tech
AP=12
11-222.2056
(LW - 2.582)
lost by 13
vs Mississippi
8 (-)Missouri
AP=19
10-421.0858
(LW - 1.779)
won by 7
at Northwestern
9 (-)Ohio-St
AP=9
10-320.5819
(LW - 0.103)
lost by 3
at Texas
10 (-)Alabama
AP=6
12-220.0269
(LW - 0.656)
lost by 14
vs Utah
11 (↑2)Utah
AP=2
13-019.6823
(LW + 0.805)
won by 14
at Alabama
12 (-)Boise-St
AP=11
12-119.0201
(LW - 0.345)
lost by 1
at TCU
13 (↑3)Mississippi
AP=14
9-418.8638
(LW + 1.731)
won by 13
at Texas-Tech
14 (↑1)Oregon
AP=10
10-318.6227
(LW + 0.706)
won by 11
vs Oklahoma-St
15 (↓1)Iowa
AP=20
9-418.2946
(LW - 0.049)
won by 21
vs South-Carolina
16 (↓5)Oklahoma-St
AP=16
9-417.7462
(LW - 1.972)
lost by 11
at Oregon
17 (-)California
AP=rv(128)
9-416.6901
(LW - 0.217)
won by 7
vs Miami-FL
18 (-)Arizona
AP=rv(4)
8-515.8185
(LW + 0.261)
won by 10
vs BYU
19 (↑2)Florida-St
AP=21
9-414.6236
(LW + 1.571)
won by 29
vs Wisconsin
20 (↓1)Oregon-St
AP=18
9-414.4389
(LW - 0.223)
won by 3
at Pittsburgh
21 (↓1)Georgia
AP=13
10-313.6219
(LW + 0.493)
won by 12
at Michigan-St
22 (-)Nebraska
AP=rv(64)
9-412.4898
(LW - 0.522)
won by 5
vs Clemson
23 (-)North-Carolina8-511.7904
(LW - 0.580)
lost by 1
vs West-Virginia
24 (↑9)Tulsa
AP=rv(61)
11-311.1922
(LW + 1.935)
won by 32
at Ball-St
25 (↓1)Kansas
AP=rv(2)
8-511.0389
(LW + 0.021)
won by 21
at Minnesota
26 (↑1)Pittsburgh
AP=rv(106)
9-410.3081
(LW - 0.162)
lost by 3
vs Oregon-St
27 (↓2)Clemson7-610.2854
(LW - 0.454)
lost by 5
at Nebraska
28 (↓2)BYU
AP=25
10-39.9352
(LW - 0.580)
lost by 10
at Arizona
29 (-)Rutgers
AP=rv(11)
8-59.5713
(LW - 0.334)
won by 6
vs NC-State
30 (↓2)Boston-Coll
AP=rv(11)
9-59.4115
(LW - 0.515)
lost by 2
at Vanderbilt
31 (↑3)Wake-Forest8-59.1329
(LW + 0.535)
won by 10
at Navy
32 (↑11)LSU
AP=rv(95)
8-58.9902
(LW + 3.144)
won by 35
at Georgia-Tech
33 (↑2)Virginia-Tech
AP=15
10-48.8271
(LW + 0.424)
won by 13
at Cincinnati
34 (↓2)Michigan-St
AP=24
9-48.4315
(LW - 1.164)
lost by 12
vs Georgia
35 (↑2)West-Virginia
AP=23
9-47.8261
(LW + 0.300)
won by 1
at North-Carolina
36 (-)South-Carolina7-67.6455
(LW - 0.375)
lost by 21
at Iowa
37 (↑1)Miami-FL7-67.2325
(LW - 0.003)
lost by 7
at California
38 (↓8)Ball-St
AP=rv(13)
12-26.6882
(LW - 3.158)
lost by 32
vs Tulsa
39 (↓8)Georgia-Tech
AP=22
9-46.5934
(LW - 3.075)
lost by 35
vs LSU
40 (↑6)Connecticut8-56.3192
(LW + 0.836)
won by 18
vs Buffalo

Other teams of note:
43 (↑1)Northwestern
AP=rv(53)
9-45.6839
(LW + 0.027)
lost by 7
vs Missouri
64 (↓8)Rice
AP=rv(8)
9-40.9500
(LW - 2.245)
lost by 24
at W-Michigan

Final BCS AP rankings will be added after they are released. (No post-bowl-games BCS rankings? How very odd.)

Pick Standings

Bowl games were picked in this post.

SRS: 22-12(64.7%)
Line:17-17(50.0%)
APR: 12-22(35.3%)

SRS' record isn't that impressive by regular-season standards. But for some reason, the Line and especially APR just tanked.

Winning Teams Unanimously Picked To Lose

  • Florida Atlantic (Motor City Bowl)
  • Louisiana Tech (Independence Bowl)
  • Western Michigan (Texas Bowl)
  • Vanderbilt (Music City Bowl)
  • LSU (Chick-fil-A Bowl)
  • Mississippi (Cotton Bowl)
  • Tulsa (GMAC Bowl)

Comments:

  • The usual suspects (Florida, Oklahoma, USC, Texas, and Penn State) are still at the top, but there's a lot of differences as you get lower down.

  • APR was only right twice picking against SRS (Oregon in the Holiday Bowl and Utah in the Sugar Bowl).

  • Clearly, APR needs to be adjusted for the NCAA.

  • Lowest ranked teams (according to SRS) to win: Colorado-St (#78), Louisiana-Tech (#89), and Florida-Atlantic (#96).

  • AP ranks Utah #2? Do they really want to give an unbeaten season that much weight?