Wednesday, January 7, 2009

NFL Divisional Game Picks

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Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Picks for the Divisional games

Based on the Wildcard rankings. Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
Arizona Cardinals @
Carolina Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.1224
Panthers
δ=6.60
Panthers
-10
Baltimore Ravens @
Tennessee Titans
Ravens
ρ=1.0855
Ravens
δ=1.49
Titans
-3
San Diego Chargers @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.0712
Steelers
δ=4.56
Steelers
-6
Philadelphia Eagles @
New York Giants
Giants
ρ=1.0042
Giants
δ=0.17
Giants
-4

Comments:

  • Unanimous, except for Ravens @ Titans.

  • On the one hand, the Ravens have played really strong so far this season. On the other hand, there seems to be games where their offense just disappears. They averaged just 10.4 points/game in their five losses.

  • Eagles @ Giants is really close, by both APR's and SRS' measure.