Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com.
Game | APR | SRS | Line |
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns | Chargers ρ=3.4812 | Chargers δ=18.95 | Chargers -12½ |
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals | Bengals ρ=3.2312 | Bengals δ=16.92 | Bengals -13 |
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins | Saints ρ=2.8654 | Saints δ=21.19 | Saints -9½ |
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Steelers ρ=1.8976 | Steelers δ=14.90 | Steelers -11½ |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | Broncos ρ=1.7174 | Broncos δ=11.35 | Broncos -4½ |
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins | Patriots ρ=1.5713 | Patriots δ=11.06 | Patriots -5 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers | Panthers ρ=1.5669 | Panthers δ=5.68 | Panthers -6½ |
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks | 49ers ρ=1.4343 | 49ers δ=5.67 | 49ers -1 |
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts | Colts ρ=1.4103 | Colts δ=14.55 | Colts -7 |
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants | Cowboys ρ=1.3756 | Cowboys δ=2.83 | Cowboys -1 |
St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears | Bears ρ=1.3306 | Bears δ=10.52 | Bears -9 |
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Texans ρ=1.1954 | Texans δ=8.39 | Jaguars -1 |
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills | Jets ρ=1.1748 | Jets δ=9.45 | Jets -3 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers | Ravens ρ=1.1729 | Ravens δ=4.06 | Packers -3 |
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals | Vikings ρ=1.1595 | Vikings δ=6.93 | Vikings -2 |
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons | Eagles ρ=1.0789 | Eagles δ=0.62 | Eagles -3½ |
Comments:
Vikings -2? Seems a little low to me. If the Titans could wear down the Cardinals' defense by the end of the game, what will it be like when Favre and Peterson take the field? I'll be surprised if the Vikings aren't ahead by 3 touchdowns before the game is over (whether that will hold up or the Vikings' defense allow some garbage-time scoring is another question).
And Bengals -13 seems a bit optimistic for a team that only beat the Browns by 9 last week. The Bengals have seven games this season where they haven't scored more than 18 points.
Can the Packers beat the Ravens? The Packers have an amazing ball-hawking defense. On the other hand, if they do beat the Ravens, it will make only the second team (along with the Cowboys) the Packers have beat currently ranked in APR's top half.