Wednesday, December 2, 2009

NFL Week 13 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
San Diego Chargers @
Cleveland Browns
Chargers
ρ=3.4812
Chargers
δ=18.95
Chargers
-12½
Detroit Lions @
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals
ρ=3.2312
Bengals
δ=16.92
Bengals
-13
New Orleans Saints @
Washington Redskins
Saints
ρ=2.8654
Saints
δ=21.19
Saints
-9½
Oakland Raiders @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.8976
Steelers
δ=14.90
Steelers
-11½
Denver Broncos @
Kansas City Chiefs
Broncos
ρ=1.7174
Broncos
δ=11.35
Broncos
-4½
New England Patriots @
Miami Dolphins
Patriots
ρ=1.5713
Patriots
δ=11.06
Patriots
-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Carolina Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.5669
Panthers
δ=5.68
Panthers
-6½
San Francisco 49ers @
Seattle Seahawks
49ers
ρ=1.4343
49ers
δ=5.67
49ers
-1
Tennessee Titans @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.4103
Colts
δ=14.55
Colts
-7
Dallas Cowboys @
New York Giants
Cowboys
ρ=1.3756
Cowboys
δ=2.83
Cowboys
-1
St. Louis Rams @
Chicago Bears
Bears
ρ=1.3306
Bears
δ=10.52
Bears
-9
Houston Texans @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Texans
ρ=1.1954
Texans
δ=8.39
Jaguars
-1
New York Jets @
Buffalo Bills
Jets
ρ=1.1748
Jets
δ=9.45
Jets
-3
Baltimore Ravens @
Green Bay Packers
Ravens
ρ=1.1729
Ravens
δ=4.06
Packers
-3
Minnesota Vikings @
Arizona Cardinals
Vikings
ρ=1.1595
Vikings
δ=6.93
Vikings
-2
Philadelphia Eagles @
Atlanta Falcons
Eagles
ρ=1.0789
Eagles
δ=0.62
Eagles
-3½

Comments:

  • Vikings -2? Seems a little low to me. If the Titans could wear down the Cardinals' defense by the end of the game, what will it be like when Favre and Peterson take the field? I'll be surprised if the Vikings aren't ahead by 3 touchdowns before the game is over (whether that will hold up or the Vikings' defense allow some garbage-time scoring is another question).

  • And Bengals -13 seems a bit optimistic for a team that only beat the Browns by 9 last week. The Bengals have seven games this season where they haven't scored more than 18 points.

  • Can the Packers beat the Ravens? The Packers have an amazing ball-hawking defense. On the other hand, if they do beat the Ravens, it will make only the second team (along with the Cowboys) the Packers have beat currently ranked in APR's top half.