Tuesday, December 15, 2009

NFL Week 15 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
Arizona Cardinals @
Detroit Lions
Cardinals
ρ=3.3245
Cardinals
δ=17.26
Cardinals
-11½
Houston Texans @
St. Louis Rams
Texans
ρ=2.5622
Texans
δ=19.48
Texans
-12½
Indianapolis Colts @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Colts
ρ=1.9888
Colts
δ=16.15
Colts
-3
Oakland Raiders @
Denver Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.7992
Broncos
δ=14.54
Broncos
-14
Minnesota Vikings @
Carolina Panthers
Vikings
ρ=1.6752
Vikings
δ=10.99
Vikings
-9
Dallas Cowboys @
New Orleans Saints
Saints
ρ=1.6240
Saints
δ=9.75
Saints
-7
Chicago Bears @
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.5513
Ravens
δ=12.51
Ravens
-10
New England Patriots @
Buffalo Bills
Patriots
ρ=1.4786
Patriots
δ=15.51
Patriots
-7
Cincinnati Bengals @
San Diego Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.3694
Chargers
δ=3.43
Chargers
-6½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.3677
Seahawks
δ=4.58
Seahawks
-7
Green Bay Packers @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Packers
ρ=1.3106
Packers
δ=4.39
Steelers
-1
Atlanta Falcons @
New York Jets
Jets
ρ=1.3057
Jets
δ=3.32
Jets
-6
New York Giants @
Washington Redskins
Giants
ρ=1.1274
Giants
δ=5.26
Giants
-3
Miami Dolphins @
Tennessee Titans
Titans
ρ=1.1177
Dolphins
δ=2.63
Titans
-4
San Francisco 49ers @
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.0645
Eagles
δ=4.19
Eagles
-9
Cleveland Browns @
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.0336
Browns
δ=0.04
Chiefs
-2

Comments:

  • The Raiders have signed J.P. Losman. It looks like its either him or Charlie Frye to start at the Broncos on Sunday. Either way, it's hard to imagine it will be worse than JaMarcus Russell's second-half outing against the Redskins.

  • The Bronocs really need to take care of business this week, to stay at the top of that long list of AFC wildcard contenders, and to keep the pressure on the Chargers.

  • The Jaguars currently win a 4-way tie to hold the AFC's #6 seed. But with the Colts this week and the Patriots next, they're going to have to work to stay at the head of that long list of contenders.

  • I suppose SNF is keeping Vikings @ Panthers so they can feature the media's favorite 40-year-old quarterback again. I wonder how happy they're going to be when the Vikings are ahead 3 scores by halftime, and everyone turns away. (Of course, I thought the same thing when they had Vikings at Cardinals...)

  • The sports books aren't real sure about Packers @ Steelers. At this writing, one actually has Packers -1, but four others favor the Steelers, so that's what is listed above.