Last summer, I did a series of posts on Pythagorean Projection (Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV). As a follow-up to Part III, I present the Projected Wins for 2009 versus Actual Wins.
Note that the format for this table is slightly different than what I used in Part II. Here, the projection was used as a baseline, so a positive difference means a team exceeded its projected wins; a negative difference means a team fell short of its projected wins.
| Team | Actual | Proj. | Diff | Comment |
| Jets | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | New HC, QB |
| Eagles | 11 | 11.3 | -0.3 | |
| Seahawks | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | New HC |
| Chiefs | 4 | 4.4 | +0.4 | New HC, QB |
| Raiders | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | |
| Browns | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | New HC |
| Patriots | 10 | 10.6 | -0.6 | Brady back |
| Falcons | 9 | 9.7 | -0.7 | |
| Lions | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | New HC, QB |
| Jaguars | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | |
| 49ers | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | |
| Rams | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | New HC, injuries |
| Bears | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | New QB |
| Texans | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 | |
| Broncos | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | New HC, QB |
| Bills | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | |
| Dolphins | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | Injuries |
| Cardinals | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | |
| Packers | 11 | 8.9 | +2.1 | New defense |
| Panthers | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | Jake Delhomme |
| Vikings | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 | New QB |
| Steelers | 9 | 11.8 | -2.8 | Troy Polamalu hurt |
| Colts | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 | Manning healthy all year |
| Chargers | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 | |
| Ravens | 9 | 11.9 | -2.9 | |
| Redskins | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 | |
| Cowboys | 11 | 7.9 | +3.1 | |
| Giants | 8 | 11.3 | -3.3 | Eli injured |
| Saints | 13 | 9.5 | +3.5 | |
| Titans | 8 | 12.1 | -4.1 | No more Haynesworth |
| Buccaneers | 3 | 9.0 | -6.0 | New HC, QB |
| Bengals | 10 | 3.2 | +6.8 | Healthy Carson Palmer |
Broken down into the range used in Part I, we have:
Range # of Teams % of 32 Classification 0 ≤δ≤ 2 17 53.1% Reasonably Close 2 <δ≤ 4 12 37.5% Moderately Close 4 <δ≤ 8 3 9.4% Wrong 8 <δ 0 0.0% Yikes!
(Note that in Part I, the difference was expressed in winning percentage; here it is expressed in games won in a 16-game season.)
Comments
The teams are sorted by the magnatude of difference; teams that came very close to their projected wins are at the top, teams further away come further down the table.
In 2008 (c.f. Part II), 8 teams (25%) finished at least 5 games away from their projected win total, which (as I said) seemed likely to be an outlier year. Here we see teams much closer: only two finished more than 5 games away from their projected wins total.
There's also a case to be made for more gradual coaching changes. The Cardinals 2-game improvement (which could've been 3, if they had had something to play for in week 17), can be attributed to continuing improvements under Coach Whisenhunt. While the Redskins 3-game fall-off might be attributed to Coach Zorn losing his squad.
Those two or three extra wins that Favre (presumably) brought to the Vikings might not seem like a big deal out of context, but (this year) they're the difference between the #2 seed and being the last wildcard (or maybe eliminated in favor of the Falcons or some other team)
