Thursday, January 8, 2015

NFL Divisional Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Panthers @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.2672
Seahawks
δ=11.5
Seahawks
-10½
Ravens @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.1373
Patriots
δ=5.7
Patriots
-7
Colts @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.0592
Broncos
δ=4.3
Broncos
-7
Cowboys @
Packers
Packers*
ρ=1.0360
Packers
δ=3.0
Packers
-6½

Comments:

  • The Panthers played the Seahawks close in the regular season, but that was early on, and played in Charlotte. The Panthers are gonna have to play a lot better than they did last week, or this game is going to be over by halftime.

    I actually think the Seahawks are maybe not as good as their record indicates, and shouldn't be such a lock to repeat in the Super Bowl (I'll have more to say about that next week). But unless Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and half their defense can't play Saturday, I just don't see the Panthers coming away with the upset.

  • The Ravens have only beat the Patriots three times, but two of those victories have come in the playoffs. If they're going to get a fourth win this weekend, I think the Ravens will have to play better defense than they did against the Steelers.

    One factor that may play into this is the status of Julian Edelman, who is currently listed as questionable probable for the game. If he can't play, or is limited, the Ravens will be able to focus a lot more on Rob Gronkowsky, the Pats' other big threat on offense.

  • The Colts and Broncos will play a rematch of their week 1 meeting this week. As I've mentioned before, the Colts have not played well on the road against good teams, and unless the Broncos just faceplant this game, the Colts will have another Divisional round exit in the playoffs.

  • Unless you've been living under a rock this week, you already know Cowboys @ Packers is the first time these teams have met in the playoffs at Lambeau since the Ice Bowl game. Besides all the other differences between then and now, Sunday's weather is expected to feature a relatively warm high of 20F.

    As for the game, well, I learned from the 2011 playoffs not to take anything for granted. But the Cowboys played a relatively sloppy game last week, with a slow start, some noticeably errant throws by Romo, and a lot of yards given up on defense.

    Assuming Aaron Rodgers stays healthy and plays the whole game, and the offense gets on a roll, the Cowboys will have a very tough time of it.