| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos @ Raiders | Broncos ρ=1.3591 | Broncos* δ=19.4 | Broncos -12 |
| Panthers @ Falcons | Panthers ρ=1.2825 | Panthers* δ=13.1 | Panthers -7 |
| Browns @ Steelers | Steelers ρ=1.2488 | Steelers δ=4.8 | Steelers -7 |
| Redskins @ Giants | Giants ρ=1.1627 | Giants δ=2.7 | Giants -3½ |
| Bills @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.1625 | Patriots δ=8.4 | Patriots -9½ |
| Texans @ Titans | Titans ρ=1.1605 | Titans δ=6.7 | Titans -7 |
| Jets @ Dolphins | Dolphins ρ=1.1553 | Dolphins δ=7.5 | Dolphins -6½ |
| Jaguars @ Colts | Colts ρ=1.1547 | Colts δ=14.6 | Colts -11½ |
| Buccaneers @ Saints | Saints ρ=1.1408 | Saints δ=9.6 | Saints -12½ |
| Ravens @ Bengals | Bengals ρ=1.1323 | Bengals δ=7.8 | Bengals -6 |
| Rams @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.1295 | Seahawks δ=9.9 | Seahawks -10½ |
| Eagles @ Cowboys | Eagles ρ=1.0940 | Eagles* δ=2.7 | Eagles -6½ |
| Packers @ Bears | Bears ρ=1.0771 | Packers* δ=0.5 | Packers -3 |
| Chiefs @ Chargers | Chargers* ρ=1.0629 | Chiefs* δ=4.2 | Chargers -9½ |
| 49ers @ Cardinals | 49ers ρ=1.0355 | 49ers* δ=3.8 | 49ers -2 |
| Lions @ Vikings | Lions* ρ=1.0015 | Lions* δ=5.8 | Vikings -3 |
Comments:
As usual, the Line for the Packers awaits an announcement on Aaron Rodgers. I will update when it is made. Update: Rodgers is finally ready to roll.
Can the Packers beat the Bears? In my more lucid moments, I'm not sure I want them to. Given the strength of the wildcard contenders, I think there's a high likelihood the NFC North champ will be one-and-done in the playoffs this year. Maybe the Packers (or Bears) only hope is to somehow get matched up with the Saints, whose notorious inability to play well on the road is the chief reason they're (probably) not NFC South champs this year.
A surprising amount of agreement for the last week of the regular season, I think. But a lot of teams still have something to play for.
I feel like Eagles @ Cowboys is gonna be a lot like last week's Bears @ Eagles game. We're gonna see a lot of LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown, and especially without Romo, this game will likely be over by halftime.
The Chiefs are, I think, the only team locked into their seed, and so will be resting at least some of their starters. Interesting that APR picks the Chargers to win, even without having that information.
Can the Lions beat the lowly Vikings? The week 1 Vikings @ Lions game was actually within 3 points well into the 4th quarter. And playing at home, closing out the Metrodome, the Vikings are not gonna be a push over.
