| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets @ Panthers | Panthers ρ=1.3631 | Panthers δ=18.7 | Panthers -11 |
| Seahawks @ Giants | Seahawks ρ=1.2397 | Seahawks* δ=18.7 | Seahawks -7 |
| Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs ρ=1.2080 | Chiefs* δ=14.7 | Chiefs -4½ |
| 49ers @ Buccaneers | 49ers ρ=1.2036 | 49ers* δ=10.3 | 49ers -5 |
| Eagles @ Vikings | Eagles ρ=1.1838 | Eagles* δ=8.3 | Eagles -4½ |
| Cardinals @ Titans | Cardinals ρ=1.1829 | Cardinals* δ=6.9 | Cardinals -3 |
| Texans @ Colts | Colts ρ=1.1790 | Colts δ=8.2 | Colts -6 |
| Chargers @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.1652 | Broncos δ=11.2 | Broncos -10 |
| Saints @ Rams | Saints ρ=1.1416 | Saints* δ=8.5 | Saints -5½ |
| Bengals @ Steelers | Bengals ρ=1.1397 | Bengals* δ=8.7 | Bengals -3 |
| Packers @ Cowboys | Cowboys ρ=1.1155 | Cowboys δ=2.9 | Cowboys -7 |
| Bears @ Browns | Bears ρ=1.1149 | Bears* δ=4.9 | Browns -1½ |
| Redskins @ Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.0745 | Falcons δ=5.7 | Falcons -6 |
| Patriots @ Dolphins | Patriots ρ=1.0727 | Patriots* δ=3.4 | Patriots -2 |
| Bills @ Jaguars | Jaguars* ρ=1.0022 | Bills* δ=7.2 | Bills -2 |
| Ravens @ Lions | Ravens* ρ=1.0011 | Lions δ=1.4 | Lions -6 |
Comments:
Like last week, there won't be a line for Packers @ Cowboys until they announce Rodger's status. I'll update when they do. Update: Flynn starts again. Lacy is probable.
The Packers haven't won at the Cowboys since 1989. You'll note that because of the vagaries of the NFL game scheduling system, there's only been one such game since 1999.
I wonder if the 49ers should be on upset alert this week. They haven't done well against their better opponents, and the Bucs have definitely been playing better than their record lately.
I assume the Browns are favored over the Bears because they have someone other than Brandon Weeden starting for them at quarterback (well that, and the fact that the Bears have a terrible defense, and the Browns don't).
I mentioned this in last week's APR vs. ESPN post, but it bears repeating. The Lions have turned the ball over 15 times in their last four games. If they don't get that turned around, and right now, they might not win another game this season.
So, I see the disaster in Washington has reached such proportions, that the Falcons are favored to beat the Redskins this week (although, even ARP and SRS are in agreement). Is there any way Shanahan's still coaching there next year?
