| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.3013 | Patriots δ=11.6 | Patriots -11½ |
| Titans @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.2509 | Broncos δ=11.8 | Broncos -11 |
| Chiefs @ Redskins | Chiefs ρ=1.2012 | Chiefs* δ=13.3 | Chiefs -3½ |
| Cowboys @ Bears | Cowboys ρ=1.1198 | Cowboys* δ=4.3 | Cowboys -1½ |
| Vikings @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.0869 | Ravens δ=5.4 | Ravens -7 |
| Panthers @ Saints | Panthers* ρ=1.0846 | Panthers* δ=3.9 | Saints -3½ |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Cardinals ρ=1.0634 | Cardinals δ=1.9 | Cardinals -6 |
| Bills @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers ρ=1.0630 | Buccaneers δ=1.1 | Buccaneers -2½ |
| Raiders @ Jets | Raiders* ρ=1.0447 | Raiders* δ=3.5 | Jets -2½ |
| Colts @ Bengals | Bengals ρ=1.0413 | Bengals δ=1.6 | Bengals -5½ |
| Lions @ Eagles | Eagles* ρ=1.0363 | Lions* δ=0.4 | Eagles -2½ |
| Seahawks @ 49ers | Seahawks ρ=1.0296 | Seahawks* δ=3.8 | Seahawks -2½ |
| Dolphins @ Steelers | Dolphins* ρ=1.0145 | Dolphins* δ=4.1 | Steelers -3 |
| Texans @ Jaguars | Jaguars* ρ=1.0070 | Texans* δ=6.5 | Texans -2½ |
| Falcons @ Packers | Packers* ρ=1.0058 | Packers δ=1.2 | Packers -3 |
| Giants @ Chargers | Giants ρ=1.0017 | Chargers δ=3.9 | Chargers -3 |
Comments:
There wont' be a line for Falcons @ Packers until they announce whether Aaron Rodgers will start. I'll update later in the week. I guess the good news for the Packers is that the Falcons are 1-5 on the road, so maybe even the Flynn- or Tolzien-lead offense could finally get a win this week. Update: Matt Flynn gets another start.
Panthers will probably need to beat the Saints twice to win the NFC South (a split would probably go to the Saints). Coincidentally, the last time the Saints lost at home, it was the Panthers who did it, week 17 last year. I expect will see more effective defenses this time around, by both teams.
I'm a little surprised the Line is taking the Jets. If Geno Smith doesn't play a lot better this week, the Jets don't have a chance.
Should the Seahawks be favored over the 49ers? This is a must win for the 49ers if they want to stay in contention for the NFC West. And beyond that, they only have a slim lead for the #6 seed in the playoffs. They really can't afford many more losses if they want in as a wildcard, either.
It seems like a lot of matchups between inconsistent teams this week. I feel like Dolphins @ Steelers, Texans @ Jaguars, Giants @ Chargers could all go either way.
