Read
this for a description of APR.
Read
this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.
This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.
Final AP rankings will be added after they are released.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (-) | Alabama AP=1 | 14-0 | 8.6491 (LW × 1.107) | won by 16 vs Texas |
| 2 (↑1) | Florida AP=3 | 13-1 | 7.4805 (LW × 1.168) | won by 27 at Cincinnati |
| 3 (↓1) | Texas AP=2 | 13-1 | 6.5225 (LW × 0.878) | lost by 16 at Alabama |
| 4 (↑3) | Virginia-Tech AP=10 | 10-3 | 5.9896 (LW × 1.100) | won by 23 at Tennessee |
| 5 (↑3) | TCU AP=6 | 12-1 | 5.8100 (LW × 1.078) | lost by 7 vs Boise-St |
| 6 (↑4) | Ohio-St AP=5 | 11-2 | 5.6282 (LW × 1.061) | won by 9 at Oregon |
| 7 (↓3) | Texas-Tech AP=21 | 9-4 | 5.6127 (LW × 0.973) | won by 10 vs Michigan-St |
| 8 (↓3) | Oklahoma AP=rv(90) | 8-5 | 5.3889 (LW × 0.942) | won by 4 at Stanford |
| 9 (↓3) | Arkansas AP=rv(3) | 8-5 | 5.3337 (LW × 0.968) | won by 3 at East-Carolina |
| 10 (↑2) | Mississippi AP=20 | 9-4 | 5.2837 (LW × 1.037) | won by 14 vs Oklahoma-St |
| 11 (↑3) | Boise-St AP=4 | 14-0 | 5.2563 (LW × 1.087) | won by 7 at TCU |
| 12 (↑9) | Iowa AP=7 | 11-2 | 5.0337 (LW × 1.146) | won by 10 at Georgia-Tech |
| 13 (↑3) | Nebraska AP=14 | 10-4 | 5.0107 (LW × 1.067) | won by 33 vs Arizona |
| 14 (↓3) | Penn-St AP=9 | 11-2 | 4.9742 (LW × 0.958) | won by 2 at LSU |
| 15 (↓6) | Oregon AP=11 | 10-3 | 4.8239 (LW × 0.908) | lost by 9 vs Ohio-St |
| 16 (↑20) | BYU AP=12 | 11-2 | 4.7202 (LW × 1.324) | won by 24 vs Oregon-St |
| 17 (↓4) | Georgia-Tech AP=13 | 11-3 | 4.6411 (LW × 0.936) | lost by 10 vs Iowa |
| 18 (↓1) | LSU AP=17 | 9-4 | 4.5010 (LW × 0.992) | lost by 2 vs Penn-St |
| 19 (↓4) | Cincinnati AP=8 | 12-1 | 4.4646 (LW × 0.941) | lost by 27 vs Florida |
| 20 (↑4) | Pittsburgh AP=15 | 10-3 | 4.4552 (LW × 1.065) | won by 2 at North-Carolina |
| 21 (↓3) | Miami-FL AP=19 | 9-4 | 4.3745 (LW × 0.965) | lost by 6 at Wisconsin |
| 22 (↑9) | Georgia AP=rv(7) | 8-5 | 4.3531 (LW × 1.141) | won by 24 vs Texas-A&M |
| 23 (↓4) | Stanford AP=rv(67) | 8-5 | 4.1467 (LW × 0.930) | lost by 4 vs Oklahoma |
| 24 (↓1) | Auburn AP=rv(8) | 8-5 | 4.1196 (LW × 0.984) | won by 3 vs Northwestern |
| 25 (↑5) | Wisconsin AP=16 | 10-3 | 4.0787 (LW × 1.069) | won by 6 vs Miami-FL |
| 26 (↑3) | Clemson AP=24 | 9-5 | 4.0627 (LW × 1.026) | won by 8 vs Kentucky |
| 27 (↓2) | West-Virginia AP=25 | 9-3 | 3.9846 (LW × 0.961) | lost by 12 at Florida-St |
| 28 (↓8) | Oklahoma-St AP=rv(40) | 9-4 | 3.9287 (LW × 0.884) | lost by 14 at Mississippi |
| 29 (↑16) | Florida-St AP=rv(6) | 7-6 | 3.9260 (LW × 1.249) | won by 12 vs West-Virginia |
| 30 (↓2) | North-Carolina | 8-5 | 3.9133 (LW × 0.973) | lost by 2 vs Pittsburgh |
Other notable teams: | ||||
| 33 (↑1) | USC AP=22 | 9-4 | 3.8352 (LW × 1.031) | won by 11 vs Boston-Coll |
| 34 (↑14) | Rutgers AP=rv(37) | 9-4 | 3.7716 (LW × 1.239) | won by 21 vs UCF |
| 35 (↑24) | Air-Force AP=rv(3) | 8-5 | 3.7666 (LW × 1.384) | won by 27 vs Houston |
| 36 (↑6) | Connecticut AP=rv(5) | 8-5 | 3.7633 (LW × 1.137) | won by 13 vs South-Carolina |
| 37 (↓15) | Oregon-St AP=rv(89) | 8-5 | 3.6879 (LW × 0.871) | lost by 24 at BYU |
| 38 (↑12) | Utah AP=18 | 10-3 | 3.6788 (LW × 1.227) | won by 10 at California |
| 39 (↑24) | Navy AP=rv(85) | 10-4 | 3.6205 (LW × 1.392) | won by 22 at Missouri |
| 41 (↓3) | Cent-Michigan AP=23 | 11-2 | 3.4578 (LW × 0.985) | won by 3 at Troy |
| 43 (↓8) | Arizona AP=rv(5) | 8-5 | 3.3083 (LW × 0.897) | lost by 33 at Nebraska |
| 54 (↑12) | Middle-Tenn-St AP=rv(4) | 10-3 | 2.9123 (LW × 1.135) | won by 10 vs Southern-Miss |
Pick Standings
Bowl games were picked in this post. Unlike last year, there were only a handful of split picks. But like last year, APR did the worst:
Line: 18-16 (52.9%) SRS: 17-17 (50.0%) APR: 16-18 (47.1%) Unanimous: 13-14 (48.1%)
Comments:
Once again, a pretty unremarkable record for bowl game picks. At least APR did better than 36% this year.
One thing that has occurred to me lately is that a neutral-field game is essentially a road game for both teams. And one thing I've really noticed this year is that there are some otherwise good teams that just tank on the road. Something else to look at in the off-season.
Colt McCoy going out early in the BCS Championship Game has to be a little bit of a bummer for Alabama. Beating Texas when they are playing their backup quarterback just isn't the same. At least they didn't lose to Texas playing their backup quarterback.
Lowest ranked teams to win a game: Idaho (#91) in the Humanitarian Bowl, and Wyoming (#86) in New Mexico Bowl.
Biggest Bowl upsets (according to APR): Wyoming defeating Fresno St (New Mexico Bowl) and SMU defeating Nevada (Hawaii Bowl).
Villanova (14-1 and the FCS champion) received 2 votes in the AP poll, but all FCS teams are removed from APR's rankings as a matter of course, and so are not listed here.
