Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts | Colts ρ=1.0534 | Saints δ=3.74 | Colts -5½ |
Comments:
Interesting: SRS picks the Saints. Probably because (as mentioned in the previous power rankings) the Colts have a lot of close wins, and a couple big losses when they pulled their starters. Also, SRS is unweighted, so the Saints early big wins count equally with later closer games.
This is the first time since Super Bowl XXVIII that there's been a 1-seed vs. 1-seed matchup.
The Colts have been relatively slow on scoring in the first half. The Saints best chance is probably to establish an early lead before the Colts have a chance to get started. Of course, even if they do, Manning knows how to bring the Colts back when he needs to.
On the other hand, the Saints are the first playoff team the Colts will face with a legitimate passing threat. The Colts had a middle-of-the-pack pass defense in the regular season, so the Saints may at least have a chance to keep up once the scoring starts.
The NFL is actually on a relatively long streak of reasonably competitive Super Bowls. Super Bowl XXXVII (Raiders vs. Buccaneers) was the last one that wasn't within one score into the fourth quarter.
