Wednesday, January 27, 2010

NFL Super Bowl Pick

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Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from

New Orleans Saints @
Indianapolis Colts


  • Interesting: SRS picks the Saints. Probably because (as mentioned in the previous power rankings) the Colts have a lot of close wins, and a couple big losses when they pulled their starters. Also, SRS is unweighted, so the Saints early big wins count equally with later closer games.

  • This is the first time since Super Bowl XXVIII that there's been a 1-seed vs. 1-seed matchup.

  • The Colts have been relatively slow on scoring in the first half. The Saints best chance is probably to establish an early lead before the Colts have a chance to get started. Of course, even if they do, Manning knows how to bring the Colts back when he needs to.

  • On the other hand, the Saints are the first playoff team the Colts will face with a legitimate passing threat. The Colts had a middle-of-the-pack pass defense in the regular season, so the Saints may at least have a chance to keep up once the scoring starts.

  • The NFL is actually on a relatively long streak of reasonably competitive Super Bowls. Super Bowl XXXVII (Raiders vs. Buccaneers) was the last one that wasn't within one score into the fourth quarter.