Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings | Cowboys ρ=1.2948 | Cowboys δ=0.58 | Vikings -2½ |
| Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints | Saints ρ=1.2864 | Saints δ=9.89 | Saints -7 |
| New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers | Jets ρ=1.0872 | Jets δ=1.66 | Chargers -7½ |
| Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | Ravens ρ=1.0573 | Ravens δ=2.80 | Colts -6½ |
Comments:
Joe Flacco is probably going to need more than 4 completions for 34 yards to beat the Colts. Even if the Ravens manage to establish another quick 14-point lead, the Colts have shown more than once they can come back from a long ways down, and come back to win.
On the other hand, the Jets' best strategy is probably the same as last week: pass a little, run a lot, play good defense. But the Chargers' offense will be harder to stop than the Bengals'.
The last time the Saints scored more than 17 points was December 13th (week 14), when they travelled to Atlanta to play the Falcons. They have to be feeling a little uneasy facing a team that just put up 51 points on their opponent.
On the other hand, the Cardinals have to be thinking all they need to do to advance is A) keep scoring like last week, and B) get a few stops on what has been lately a very weak offense.
The Cowboys @ Vikings is an interesting matchup. On the one hand, the Cowboys have exactly one notable win outside the division (@ the Saints in week 15). On the other hand, the Vikings have been losing lately even to bad teams (though all on the road).
The Cowboys seem to have all the momentum going into this game, but you have to figure that Favre and the Vikings, playing at home, are going to give it everything they've got. Certainly, the Vikings have much more to lose: after such high expectations, one-and-done in the playoffs could spell the end of Favre's career, and probably get Childress fired as well.
