Saturday, October 17, 2009

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 7

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Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Alabama
AP=1
7-07.5253
(LW × 0.929)
won by 14
vs South-Carolina
2 (-)Florida
AP=2
6-07.4327
(LW × 1.011)
won by 3
vs Arkansas
3 (↑2)Texas
AP=3
6-07.0277
(LW × 1.260)
won by 3
vs Oklahoma
4 (↓1)Virginia-Tech
AP=15
5-26.0916
(LW × 0.920)
lost by 5
at Georgia-Tech
5 (↑4)Iowa
AP=7
7-05.8404
(LW × 1.141)
won by 10
at Wisconsin
6 (↑41)Texas-Tech
AP=21
5-25.6090
(LW × 1.864)
won by 21
at Nebraska
7 (↑6)TCU
AP=10
6-05.5548
(LW × 1.208)
won by 38
vs Colorado-St
8 (↑2)USC
AP=4
5-15.5062
(LW × 1.078)
won by 7
at Notre-Dame
9 (↑2)Cincinnati
AP=5
6-05.2810
(LW × 1.058)
won by 17
at South-Florida
10 (↑15)Georgia-Tech
AP=11
6-15.2252
(LW × 1.379)
won by 5
vs Virginia-Tech
11 (↑1)Oregon
AP=12
5-15.1857
(LW × 1.058)
Bye
12 (↓5)Boise-St
AP=6
6-05.0124
(LW × 0.924)
won by 7
at Tulsa
13 (↓9)Arkansas
AP=rv(8)
3-34.9464
(LW × 0.881)
lost by 3
at Florida
14 (↑2)Miami-FL
AP=8
5-14.9389
(LW × 1.114)
won by 20
at UCF
15 (↓9)Kansas
AP=24
5-14.7366
(LW × 0.864)
lost by 4
at Colorado
16 (↑2)Oklahoma
AP=25
3-34.2743
(LW × 0.990)
lost by 3
at Texas
17 (-)Tennessee3-34.1882
(LW × 0.969)
Bye
18 (↑21)Clemson3-34.1767
(LW × 1.304)
won by 35
vs Wake-Forest
19 (↓11)Nebraska
AP=rv(52)
4-24.1638
(LW × 0.776)
lost by 21
vs Texas-Tech
20 (↑10)West-Virginia
AP=22
5-14.1168
(LW × 1.146)
won by 17
vs Marshall
21 (↓1)Auburn
AP=rv(3)
5-24.1155
(LW × 0.986)
lost by 7
vs Kentucky
22 (↓7)Notre-Dame
AP=rv(61)
4-24.0510
(LW × 0.910)
lost by 7
vs USC
23 (↓9)Ohio-St
AP=18
5-23.9856
(LW × 0.870)
lost by 8
at Purdue
24 (↓2)LSU
AP=9
5-13.9557
(LW × 0.999)
Bye
25 (↑23)Penn-St
AP=13
6-13.9490
(LW × 1.335)
won by 20
vs Minnesota
26 (↑18)California
AP=rv(9)
4-23.8537
(LW × 1.263)
won by 19
at UCLA
27 (↓4)Oregon-St
AP=rv(5)
4-23.8197
(LW × 0.983)
Bye
28 (↑15)Houston
AP=17
5-13.8162
(LW × 1.249)
won by 28
at Tulane
29 (↑3)Arizona
AP=rv(25)
4-23.7612
(LW × 1.094)
won by 5
vs Stanford
30 (↓6)Pittsburgh
AP=20
6-13.7251
(LW × 0.973)
won by 7
at Rutgers

Other Notable Teams:
31 (↑5)Oklahoma-St
AP=14
5-13.7155
(LW × 1.104)
won by 16
vs Missouri
34 (↓15)South-Florida
AP=rv(57)
5-13.5995
(LW × 0.859)
lost by 17
vs Cincinnati
36 (↓8)Michigan
AP=rv(41)
5-23.4231
(LW × 0.929)
won by 57
vs Delaware-St
38 (↑12)Boston-Coll
AP=rv(3)
5-23.3451
(LW × 1.151)
won by 32
vs NC-State
41 (↑5)Mississippi
AP=rv(59)
4-23.2839
(LW × 1.090)
won by 35
vs UAB
42 (↓13)Wisconsin
AP=rv(4)
5-23.1596
(LW × 0.869)
lost by 10
vs Iowa
44 (↓4)Utah
AP=19
5-13.1367
(LW × 0.985)
won by 20
at UNLV
45 (↓11)BYU
AP=16
6-13.1303
(LW × 0.918)
won by 10
at San-Diego-St
49 (↑2)South-Carolina
AP=23
5-22.9914
(LW × 1.031)
lost by 14
at Alabama
53 (↓4)Navy
AP=rv(4)
5-22.8929
(LW × 0.982)
won by 3
at SMU
55 (↑14)Cent-Michigan
AP=rv(39)
6-12.8362
(LW × 1.274)
won by 11
at W-Michigan
57 (↓24)Missouri
AP=rv(4)
4-22.7369
(LW × 0.800)
lost by 16
at Oklahoma-St
64 (↓10)Idaho
AP=rv(4)
6-12.5438
(LW × 0.932)
won by 12
vs Hawaii

Comments:

  • APR hsa Alabama and Florida ranked very close. Texas isn't too far away, but there's a big drop off in the power index to #4 Virginia Tech.

  • Arkansas justifies their high ranking (in spite of their now 3-3 record) by playing Florida very close.

  • Iowa has a good shot at finishing undefeated. All their remaining games are in the Big 10, with Ohio State the only team on that list better than 4-3 right now.

  • Arizona gets a flukey, come-from-behind win over Stanford, a week after giving up a flukey, come-from-behind win to Washington.