Sunday, October 25, 2009

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 8

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Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑1)Florida
BCS=1
7-07.5491
(LW × 1.016)
won by 10
at Mississippi-St
2 (↓1)Alabama
BCS=2
8-07.2354
(LW × 0.961)
won by 2
vs Tennessee
3 (-)Texas
BCS=3
7-07.1082
(LW × 1.011)
won by 24
at Missouri
4 (↑3)TCU
BCS=6
7-06.3121
(LW × 1.136)
won by 31
at BYU
5 (↓1)Virginia-Tech
BCS=13
5-26.1698
(LW × 1.013)
Bye
6 (↑4)Georgia-Tech
BCS=11
7-16.0470
(LW × 1.157)
won by 25
at Virginia
7 (↓2)Iowa
BCS=4
8-05.6931
(LW × 0.975)
won by 2
at Michigan-St
8 (↑3)Oregon
BCS=10
6-15.6466
(LW × 1.089)
won by 24
at Washington
9 (↑7)Oklahoma4-35.4988
(LW × 1.286)
won by 22
at Kansas
10 (↓2)USC
BCS=5
6-15.2348
(LW × 0.951)
won by 6
vs Oregon-St
11 (↓5)Texas-Tech5-35.0575
(LW × 0.902)
lost by 22
vs Texas-A&M
12 (↓3)Cincinnati
BCS=8
7-05.0185
(LW × 0.950)
won by 31
vs Louisville
13 (-)Arkansas3-44.9873
(LW × 1.008)
lost by 13
at Mississippi
14 (↑10)LSU
BCS=9
6-14.9021
(LW × 1.239)
won by 21
vs Auburn
15 (↓1)Miami-FL
BCS=19
5-24.8947
(LW × 0.991)
lost by 3
vs Clemson
16 (↑9)Penn-St
BCS=12
7-14.8428
(LW × 1.226)
won by 25
at Michigan
17 (↓5)Boise-St
BCS=7
7-04.8303
(LW × 0.964)
won by 45
at Hawaii
18 (-)Clemson4-34.7584
(LW × 1.139)
won by 3
at Miami-FL
19 (↑12)Oklahoma-St
BCS=14
6-14.6779
(LW × 1.259)
won by 27
at Baylor
20 (↑21)Mississippi
BCS=25
5-24.5543
(LW × 1.387)
won by 13
vs Arkansas
21 (↑9)Pittsburgh
BCS=15
7-14.4826
(LW × 1.203)
won by 27
vs South-Florida
22 (↑1)Ohio-St
BCS=17
6-24.3937
(LW × 1.102)
won by 31
vs Minnesota
23 (↓6)Tennessee3-44.3739
(LW × 1.044)
lost by 2
at Alabama
24 (↑54)Texas-A&M4-34.3423
(LW × 2.141)
won by 22
at Texas-Tech
25 (↓3)Notre-Dame
BCS=23
5-24.2533
(LW × 1.050)
won by 4
vs Boston-Coll
26 (↑3)Arizona
BCS=20
5-24.2308
(LW × 1.125)
won by 14
vs UCLA
27 (↑36)Kansas-St5-34.1263
(LW × 1.606)
won by 14
vs Colorado
28 (-)Houston
BCS=18
6-14.0444
(LW × 1.060)
won by 23
vs SMU
29 (↓14)Kansas5-24.0051
(LW × 0.846)
lost by 22
vs Oklahoma
30 (↓11)Nebraska4-33.9915
(LW × 0.959)
lost by 2
vs Iowa-St

Other notable teams:
31 (↓11)West-Virginia
BCS=21
6-13.9646
(LW × 0.963)
won by 4
vs Connecticut
33 (↓7)California
BCS=24
5-23.7077
(LW × 0.962)
won by 32
vs Washington-St
41 (↑3)Utah
BCS=16
6-13.2820
(LW × 1.046)
won by 7
vs Air-Force
44 (↑5)South-Carolina
BCS=22
6-23.1103
(LW × 1.040)
won by 4
vs Vanderbilt

Comments:

  • Note there is a major drop-off of power from #3 to #4. TCU would need another 13% increase to overtake where Texas is now.

  • Arkansas is getting an enormous amount of power from their last three games (beat Auburn, lost by 2 @ Florida, lost by 13 @ Mississippi).

  • And Texas A&M is getting an enormous amount of power from their win over Texas Tech (nearly three times as much as their next-most powerful game).

  • UCLA played Arizona as close as they did thanks to the Wildcats giving up 3 interceptions and 2 fumbles. With Washington State, Cal, and ASU coming up, Arizona has a decent shot to get to 8 wins this season.

  • Congratulations to the Arizona Wildcats for their BCS ranking! They've got a bye next week, so they've got at least two more weeks to enjoy it.

  • California seems like a pretty shaky team to be ranked. Two big-time losses to Oregon and USC are not a good sign.