Sunday, October 4, 2009

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 5

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Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑3)Alabama
AP=3
5-06.7353
(LW × 1.161)
won by 18
at Kentucky
2 (↓1)Iowa
AP=12
5-06.0888
(LW × 0.744)
won by 3
vs Arkansas-St
3 (↑4)Texas
AP=2
4-05.3294
(LW × 1.076)
Bye
4 (↓2)Virginia-Tech
AP=5
4-15.2249
(LW × 0.789)
won by 8
at Duke
5 (↑7)Florida
AP=1
4-05.1535
(LW × 1.184)
Bye
6 (↑8)Kansas
AP=16
4-05.1435
(LW × 1.183)
Bye
7 (↑12)USC
AP=7
4-14.8534
(LW × 1.307)
won by 27
at California
8 (-)Stanford
AP=rv(50)
4-14.7482
(LW × 1.008)
won by 8
vs UCLA
9 (↓4)Miami-FL
AP=11
3-14.7205
(LW × 0.904)
won by 1
vs Oklahoma
10 (↑5)Auburn
AP=17
5-04.7134
(LW × 1.096)
won by 4
at Tennessee
11 (↓8)Boise-St
AP=6
5-04.6788
(LW × 0.777)
won by 18
vs UC-Davis
12 (↑1)LSU
AP=4
5-04.5422
(LW × 1.044)
won by 7
at Georgia
13 (↓2)TCU
AP=10
4-04.4117
(LW × 1.007)
won by 25
vs SMU
14 (↓8)South-Florida
AP=23
5-04.4114
(LW × 0.877)
won by 14
at Syracuse
15 (↑2)Nebraska
AP=21
3-14.3527
(LW × 1.140)
Bye
16 (↑7)Cincinnati
AP=8
5-04.2363
(LW × 1.163)
won by 24
at Miami-OH
17 (↓8)Oregon
AP=13
4-14.0873
(LW × 0.872)
won by 46
vs Washington-St
18 (↑13)Notre-Dame
AP=rv(9)
4-14.0768
(LW × 1.299)
won by 7
vs Washington
19 (↑10)Georgia
AP=rv(115)
3-24.0209
(LW × 1.255)
lost by 7
vs LSU
20 (↑2)Ohio-St
AP=9
4-14.0061
(LW × 1.097)
won by 19
at Indiana
21 (↑4)Oklahoma
AP=19
2-23.9338
(LW × 1.139)
lost by 1
at Miami-FL
22 (↓4)Georgia-Tech
AP=22
4-13.8478
(LW × 1.014)
won by 11
at Mississippi-St
23 (↑14)Pittsburgh
AP=rv(3)
4-13.7639
(LW × 1.266)
won by 25
at Louisville
24 (↑15)Wisconsin
AP=rv(157)
5-03.7047
(LW × 1.275)
won by 3
at Minnesota
25 (↓15)Florida-St2-33.6834
(LW × 0.822)
lost by 7
at Boston-Coll
26 (-)Washington2-33.5971
(LW × 1.070)
lost by 7
at Notre-Dame
27 (↑1)Oklahoma-St
AP=15
3-13.5941
(LW × 1.115)
Bye
28 (↑15)Boston-Coll
AP=rv(12)
4-13.5539
(LW × 1.302)
won by 7
vs Florida-St
29 (↑16)Missouri
AP=24
4-03.4581
(LW × 1.335)
Bye
30 (↓9)Clemson2-33.4114
(LW × 0.932)
lost by 3
at Maryland

Other Notable Teams:
32 (↑4)Arizona
AP=rv(2)
3-13.3413
(LW × 1.111)
Bye
33 (↓1)BYU
AP=18
4-13.3350
(LW × 1.069)
won by 18
vs Utah-St
34 (↓14)Penn-St
AP=14
4-13.2634
(LW × 0.887)
won by 18
at Illinois
36 (↓3)South-Carolina
AP=25
4-13.2578
(LW × 1.063)
won by 24
vs S-Carolina-St
37 (↑17)West-Virginia
AP=rv(2)
3-13.2035
(LW × 1.414)
won by 11
vs Colorado
40 (↓24)Houston
AP=rv(142)
3-13.0877
(LW × 0.745)
lost by 17
at UTEP
43 (↓16)Michigan
AP=rv(25)
4-12.8390
(LW × 0.873)
lost by 6
at Michigan-St
45 (↑7)Mississippi
AP=20
3-12.7119
(LW × 1.182)
won by 16
at Vanderbilt
49 (↓15)Utah
AP=rv(31)
3-12.6563
(LW × 0.876)
Bye

Comments:

  • Wow, Iowa really pays the price for not putting a stomp-down on 1-3 Arkansas St. on their home field!

  • Some weeks, it's really best to be on a Bye.

  • How was Cal ever ranked #6? They sure haven't seemed like it the last two weeks. That win over Minnesota (APR #64, not pictured) is starting to seem a long time ago.

  • Three 2-3 teams in the top 30 is not something I like to see. But it took overtime for Notre Dame (APR #18) to beat Washington, and they have that win over 4-1 USC.

  • APR is giving Clemson the benefit of the doubt for three close road losses to Georgia Tech (APR #22), TCU (APR #13), and Maryland (APR #36). They also have a home win over Boston College (APR #28).

  • Florida State looks to have the least impressive record of the three 2-3 teams. They also lost the biggest chunk of power index (17.8%) from last week.

  • What happened to Ball State? Did their entire starting line-up graduate? They won 12 games last year. This year, they are 0-5, and APR has them ranked 112 (out of 120).