Picks for week 4.
Read
this for a description of APR.
Read this
for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com (except for Colts @ Seahawks, which is from footballlocks.com).
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers | 49ers ρ=5.1635 | 49ers δ=25.31 | 49ers -9½ |
| New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs | Giants ρ=3.3182 | Giants δ=11.14 | Giants -9 |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts | Colts ρ=3.2220 | Colts δ=3.07 | Colts -9 |
| Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns | Bengals ρ=2.9866 | Bengals δ=18.73 | Bengals -5½ |
| Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.9560 | Broncos δ=13.00 | Cowboys -3 |
| Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Jaguars ρ=1.8042 | Titans δ=0.11 | Titans -3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins | Redskins ρ=1.7247 | Redskins δ=8.07 | Redskins -7 |
| Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | Vikings ρ=1.6018 | Vikings δ=5.04 | Vikings -3 |
| Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins | Bills ρ=1.5682 | Bills δ=10.83 | Bills -2 |
| Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears | Bears ρ=1.3137 | Bears δ=2.75 | Bears -10 |
| Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans | Texans ρ=1.1212 | Raiders δ=0.90 | Texans -9 |
| Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots | Ravens ρ=1.0758 | Ravens δ=6.55 | Patriots -2 |
| New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints | Jets ρ=1.0340 | Saints δ=14.93 | Saints -7 |
| San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Steelers ρ=1.0062 | Steelers δ=0.39 | Steelers -6½ |
Comments:
If the Titans can't beat the Jaguars... it'll be hard to make the argument that Albert Haynesworth wasn't worth the $100M he was asking.
I like the call of Broncos over the Cowboys. I'm not sure the Broncos are really worth their #5 ranking, but the Cowboys don't seem like the team to knock them down.
I wish I could argue that the Packers have a chance on MNF. But they struggled against the lowly Rams on Sunday (in spite of the final score, the Rams were within 6 points early in the 4th quarter). Unless the Packers are on the verge of some big changes, or Favre has a massive melt-down, this could be very ugly for Packer fans.
Jets @ Saints seems like one of the big match-ups this week. I'm surprised CBS isn't showing it on more stations.
