Picks for week 5.
Read
this for a description of APR.
Read this
for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com (except for Jaguars @ Seahawks, which is from footballlocks.com).
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams | Vikings ρ=5.6317 | Vikings δ=29.18 | Vikings -9 |
| Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans | Colts ρ=4.1111 | Colts δ=18.45 | Colts -3½ |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles | Eagles ρ=3.7398 | Eagles δ=23.34 | Eagles -15 |
| Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs | Cowboys ρ=2.6246 | Cowboys δ=10.56 | Cowboys -8½ |
| Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals | Cardinals ρ=2.1422 | Cardinals δ=6.24 | Cardinals -5½ |
| Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants | Giants ρ=2.0813 | Giants δ=11.94 | Giants -16 |
| New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins | Jets ρ=1.9978 | Jets δ=7.93 | Jets -1½ |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks | Jaguars ρ=1.9748 | Jaguars δ=6.70 | Seahawks -1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions | Steelers ρ=1.7488 | Steelers δ=10.27 | Steelers -10½ |
| Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills | Bills ρ=1.4294 | Bills δ=4.97 | Bills -6 |
| Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers | Redskins ρ=1.3461 | Redskins δ=3.22 | Panthers -3½ |
| Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens | Bengals ρ=1.2028 | Ravens δ=4.52 | Ravens -8½ |
| New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos | Patriots ρ=1.1028 | Broncos δ=1.86 | Patriots -3 |
| Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers | 49ers ρ=1.0841 | 49ers δ=11.41 | 49ers -2½ |
Bye: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, San Diego Chargers
Comments:
Six 2-score lines this week, with a couple pushing 3 scores. But the Buccaneers and Raiders have given up a lot of points this season.
Redskins @ Panthers: another "stoppable force vs. the movable object" game. How long until Jim Zorn gets fired if the Redskins lose?
I didn't notice APR had the Bengals ranked above the Ravens when I posted the power rankings. We should get a good idea from this game if the Bengals are the real deal this year.
The Broncos finally get (I think) a real test. They didn't look that dominating beating the Cowboys, so I think APR (and the Line) is right in picking the Patriots.
