Disclaimers:
The Secretary disavows all knowledge of these rankings.
These rankings are algorithmically determined based on the final scores of games played this season. This means the power index is a measure of "Demonstrated Power"—and good teams are intrinsically limited on how much power they can demonstrate over very bad teams.
The power index algorithm is intended to be predictive; as far as I am concerned, the final arbiter of what is a good or bad ranking algorithm is how well it does picking games.
If you bet actual money on games, you are taking your own chances.
Yes, I realize that it's not exactly conventional wisdom to put the Dolphins at #3. But that's where APR puts them.
If it makes you feel any better, I am willing to stipulate in advance that the team of your choice is unfairly ranked. (Giants fans? I'm lookin' at you.)
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW-2) | Tennessee Titans | 5-0 | 1.4831 (LW * 1.015) | won by 3 at Ravens |
| 2 (LW+1) | Washington Redskins | 4-1 | 1.4787 (LW * 1.001) | won by 6 at Eagles |
| 3 (LW-12) | Miami Dolphins | 2-2 | 1.4680 (LW * 1.119) | won by 7 vs Chargers |
| 4 (LW-2) | Carolina Panthers | 4-1 | 1.4351 (LW * 1.011) | won by 34 vs Chiefs |
| 5 (LW-9) | Arizona Cardinals | 3-2 | 1.4110 (LW * 1.075) | won by 24 vs Bills |
| 6 (LW+2) | San Diego Chargers | 2-3 | 1.4067 (LW * 0.966) | lost by 7 at Dolphins |
| 7 (LW-6) | New York Jets | 2-2 | 1.3988 (LW * 1.065) | Bye |
| 8 (LW+6) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-2 | 1.3931 (LW * 0.946) | lost by 3 at Broncos |
| 9 (LW+4) | Dallas Cowboys | 4-1 | 1.3836 (LW * 0.962) | won by 9 vs Bengals |
| 10 (LW-1) | Denver Broncos | 4-1 | 1.3516 (LW * 0.989) | won by 3 vs Buccaneers |
| 11 (LW+3) | Chicago Bears | 3-2 | 1.3465 (LW * 0.969) | won by 27 at Lions |
| 12 (LW-6) | New England Patriots | 3-1 | 1.3459 (LW * 1.053) | won by 9 at 49ers |
| 13 (LW+3) | New York Giants | 4-0 | 1.3377 (LW * 0.977) | won by 38 vs Seahawks |
| 14 (LW-5) | Minnesota Vikings | 2-3 | 1.3255 (LW * 1.064) | won by 3 at Saints |
| 15 (LW+8) | New Orleans Saints | 2-3 | 1.3186 (LW * 0.933) | lost by 3 vs Vikings |
| 16 (LW-1) | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4-1 | 1.3060 (LW * 1.011) | won by 5 at Jaguars |
| 17 (LW+8) | Philadelphia Eagles | 2-3 | 1.3029 (LW * 0.952) | lost by 6 vs Redskins |
| 18 (LW+2) | Baltimore Ravens | 2-2 | 1.2887 (LW * 0.986) | lost by 3 vs Titans |
| 19 (LW+7) | Buffalo Bills | 4-1 | 1.2161 (LW * 0.915) | lost by 24 at Cardinals |
| 20 (LW-3) | Atlanta Falcons | 3-2 | 1.2021 (LW * 1.027) | won by 3 at Packers |
| 21 (LW-3) | Indianapolis Colts | 2-2 | 1.1754 (LW * 1.021) | won by 4 at Texans |
| 22 (LW+1) | Oakland Raiders | 1-3 | 1.1667 (LW * 0.963) | Bye |
| 23 (LW+3) | Green Bay Packers | 2-3 | 1.1607 (LW * 0.946) | lost by 3 vs Falcons |
| 24 (LW+2) | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-3 | 1.1607 (LW * 0.976) | lost by 5 vs Steelers |
| 25 (LW) | Kansas City Chiefs | 1-4 | 1.1277 (LW * 0.983) | lost by 34 at Panthers |
| 26 (LW) | Cleveland Browns | 1-3 | 1.1150 (LW * 0.994) | Bye |
| 27 (LW-3) | Cincinnati Bengals | 0-5 | 1.0679 (LW * 1.044) | lost by 9 at Cowboys |
| 28 (LW+1) | San Francisco 49ers | 2-3 | 1.0588 (LW * 0.971) | lost by 9 vs Patriots |
| 29 (LW+1) | Houston Texans | 0-4 | 1.0394 (LW * 0.971) | lost by 4 vs Colts |
| 30 (LW+1) | Seattle Seahawks | 1-3 | 0.9683 (LW * 0.939) | lost by 38 at Giants |
| 31 (LW-1) | Detroit Lions | 0-4 | 0.8557 (LW * 0.997) | lost by 27 vs Bears |
| 32 (LW+1) | St. Louis Rams | 0-4 | 0.8308 (LW * 0.963) | Bye |
Comments:
The Redskins were still #1 before the results of the Monday Night game. The Vikings win made the Titans win over the Vikings look better, and pushed them to the top spot.
Yeah, the Dolphins have somehow found their way to the #3 spot. I realize this looks pretty wacky. Here's some internals of their power index calculation:
Game: vs SD @ NE @ ARI vs NYJ Power: 1.630 1.907 1.050 1.169 They are getting huge amounts of power from their wins, and it's a weighted average, so the early losses count for less every week.
The Chargers are at #6 largely on the strength of their wins over the Jets and Raiders:
Game: @ MIA @ OAK vs NYJ @ DEN vs CAR Power: 1.236 1.510 1.781 1.275 1.209 Note that the Jets' wins over the Dolphins and Cardinals both look better this week.
Yeah, the Giants are not only #13, they fall 3 spots in spite of a blow-out win. Here's their internals:
Game: vs SEA vs CIN @STL vs WAS Power: 1.300 1.154 1.217 1.749 Even a blow-out win over a team as weak as the Seahawks isn't enough to sustain a very high power index. Also, as indicated above, older games are weighted less, so the Giants' win over the Redskins is discounted more than the Dolphins' and Chargers' more recent wins.
More bad news for the Giants. They have the Browns (APR #26) and 49ers (APR #28) coming up, so they're probably going to continue to drift down. Then they get to the brutal part of their schedule: Steelers, Cowboys, Eagles, Ravens, Cardinals, Redskins... it may take a while, but if the Giants are the real deal, the will start climbing.
Also check out the Bears dropping 3 spots for the trouble of blowing out the hapless Lions. APR's just not that impressed with blow out wins against the likes of the Seahawks, Lions and Rams.
Teams ESPN likes more than APR:
Giants (+12) covered above. Steelers (+11) haven't beat a team APR ranks higher than the Ravens (#18). Bills(+10) haven't beat a team APR ranks higher than the Raiders (#22). Colts (+10) have two skin-of-their-teeth wins against the Vikings (#14) and Texans (#29).Teams APR likes more than ESPN:
Dolphins (-20) covered above. Jets (-11) beat the Dolphins and Cardinals, which actually looks pretty good, at least this week. Chargers (-10) covered above.
Historically Bad Teams Watch
The Rams had a Bye this week, so they don't move. The Lions had another blow-out loss, and could actually push the 76 Bucs down to 3rd place with another big loss. The Chiefs are included as an example of a more ordinary "bad team".
| Rank | Team | Net Pts/Game | W-L | Next Week |
| 1 | 2008 Rams | -26.00 | 0-4 | @ Redskins |
| 2 | 1976 Buccaneers | -20.50 | 0-14 | n/a |
| 3 | 2008 Lions | -20.25 | 0-4 | @ Vikings |
| . . . | . . . | . . . | . . . | . . . |
| 39 | 2008 Chiefs | -13.20 | 1-4 | Bye |
