Picks for week 2 National Jump-to-Conclusions Week.
Line data is from yahoo.com, and is not guaranteed to be accurate beyond the point I read it off their page.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns | Steelers ρ=2.0358 | Steelers δ=39.0 | Steelers -6 |
| New York Giants @ St. Louis Rams | Giants ρ=1.7619 | Giants δ=44.0 | Giants -8.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans | Ravens ρ=1.7055 | Ravens δ=28.0 | Texans -4.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings | Vikings ρ=1.6514 | Vikings δ=11.0 | Colts -2 |
| San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.5177 | Broncos δ=29.0 | Chargers -2.5 |
| Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals | Cardinals ρ=1.4895 | Cardinals δ=16.0 | Cardinals -6.5 |
| Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs | Chiefs ρ=1.4767 | Chiefs δ=20.0 | Chiefs -4 |
| Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Bills ρ=1.4060 | Bills δ=31.0 | Jaguars -6 |
| Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals | Titans ρ=1.3774 | Titans δ=14.0 | Cincinnati -1.5 |
| Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Packers ρ=1.2853 | Packers δ=18.0 | Packers -3 |
| New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins | Saints ρ=1.2772 | Saints δ=13.0 | Push |
| Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Falcons ρ=1.2053 | Falcons δ=17.0 | Buccaneers -8 |
| Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers | Bears ρ=1.1052 | Bears δ=14.0 | Panthers -3 |
| San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks | 49ers ρ=1.0544 | 49ers δ=14.0 | Seahawks -8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys | Cowboys ρ=1.0542 | Eagles δ=17.0 | Cowboys -6.5 |
| New England Patriots @ New York Jets | Patriots ρ=1.0287 | Patriots δ= 1.0 | Jets -2 |
Comments:
I like APR's pick of the Vikings over the Colts. Indy's run defense looked terrible Sunday night; Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor could both have career games Sunday.
Why does the line like the Bengals over the Titans? Is it because Young is out? The highlights I saw of the Titans/Jaguars game made it look like the Titans actually played better when Kerry Collins came in...
How can you not pick the Saints over the Redskins? Washington looked terrible in their opener, and New Orleans actually won a game...
The Patriots are not favored to win. Wow. APR regards a 7 point win as notably better than a 6 point win, which is why the Patriot's home win is ranked higher than the Jets' road win.
These will likely be the highest (and most unreliable) matchup ratio values (the ρ number) APR will produce all season. Be warned.
