Tuesday, September 9, 2008

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

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Read this for a description of APR

Here's the power rankings for week 1. A few notes:

  • There's a small "epsilon" factor built-in to APR that gives a very small amount of weight to the margin of victory to avoid early-season ties. The way I wrote it, this is done every time through the feedback loop, and oddly, the end result makes teams that win by a wide margin slightly weaker than teams that win closer games under similar circumstances. The way I wrote the code, there's no easy way to change this except to take it out completely, and I'm not entirely convinced this is wrong...

  • Note that there are still a number of ties in the rankings.

  • These rankings are based on one game (no preseason data was included). Don't freak out if you think your team is ranked too low; things will settle out as more games are played.

  • In general, APR operates under the assumption that

    winning on the road > winning at home > losing on the road > losing at home

    which is very much reflected in the rankings below. The Jets and Panthers were not ranked higher because their road wins were close.

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1)Chicago
Bears
1.54541-0won @Colts by 16
2)Dallas
Cowboys
1.54511-0won @Browns by 18
3)Denver
Broncos
1.54341-0won @Raiders by 27
4)Arizona
Cardinals
1.51481-0won @49ers by 10
5)Pittsburgh
Steelers
1.46871-0won vs Texans by 21
6)Buffalo
Bills
1.46821-0won vs Seahawks by 24
7)Philadelphia
Eagles
1.46571-0won vs Rams by 35
8)Atlanta
Falcons
1.44231-0won vs Lions by 24
9)New York
Giants
1.43971-0won vs Redskins by 9
T10)New England
Patriots
1.43841-0won vs Chiefs by 7
T10)Baltimore
Ravens
1.43841-0won vs Bengals by 7
T10)Tennessee
Titans
1.43841-0won vs Jaguars by 7
T13)New York
Jets
1.39831-0won @ Dolphins by 6
T13)Carolina
Panthers
1.39831-0won @Chargers by 2
T15)Green Bay
Packers
1.32961-0won vs Vikings by 6
T15)New Orleans
Saints
1.32961-0won vs Buccaneers by 4
T17)Minnesota
Vikings
1.19670-1lost @Packers by 6
T17)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
1.19670-1lost @ Saints by 4
T19)Kansas City
Chiefs
1.04430-1lost @Patriots by 7
T19)Cincinnati
Bengals
1.04430-1lost @Ravens by 7
21)Jacksonville
Jaguars
1.04430-1lost @Titans by 7
22)Washington
Redskins
1.04100-1lost @ Giants by 9
23)Detroit
Lions
1.03450-1lost @ Falcons by 14
T24)San Diego
Chargers
1.01690-1lost vs Panthers by 2
T24)Miami
Dolphins
1.01690-1lost vs Jets by 6
26)San Francisco
49ers
0.88330-1lost vs Cardinals by 10
27)Houston
Texans
0.84340-1lost @Steelers by 21
28)Seattle
Seahawks
0.83780-1lost @Bills by 14
29)St. Louis
Rams
0.81710-1lost @Eagles by 35
30)Indianapolis
Colts
0.72460-1lost vs Bears by 16
31)Cleveland
Browns
0.72150-1lost vs Cowboys by 18
32)Oakland
Raiders
0.70720-1lost vs Broncos by 27