Picks for week 3.
Line picks are from yahoo.com, and are (probably) accurate when I read them off the page. YMMV.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans | Titans ρ=1.8854 | Titans δ=38.1 | Titans -5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants | Giants ρ=1.7591 | Giants δ=26.0 | Giants -13.5 |
| Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings | Panthers ρ=1.5888 | Panthers δ=21.2 | Vikings -3.5 |
| Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers | 49ers ρ=1.3975 | 49ers δ=19.5 | 49ers -4 |
| Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.3900 | Ravens δ= 8.6 | Ravens -2 |
| New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers | Chargers ρ=1.3231 | Chargers δ=21.0 | Chargers -9 |
| Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.3211 | Patriots δ=10.6 | Patriots -12.5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears | Bears ρ=1.2249 | Bears δ= 9.7 | Bears -3 |
| Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers | Cowboys ρ=1.1583 | Cowboys δ=13.2 | Cowboys -3 |
| Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills | Bills ρ=1.1516 | Bills δ=19.6 | Bills -9.5 |
| New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.1446 | Broncos δ=11.7 | Broncos -5.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts | Colts ρ=1.1312 | Jaguars δ= 4.3 | Colts -5.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.1214 | Falcons δ= 6.7 | Falcons -5 |
| Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins | Cardinals ρ=1.0917 | Cardinals δ= 5.4 | Redskins -3 |
| St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.0136 | Seahawks δ=11.0 | Seahawks -9.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles | Eagles ρ=1.0044 | Eagles δ= 9.8 | Eagles -3 |
Comments:
A surprising amount of agreement, considering how much movement there was in the rankings this week.
The Panthers have two huge wins, and are getting their star receiver (Steve Smith) back this week. Why does the line like the Vikings?
Patriots -12.5? Seems like a lot for a team that hasn't scored more than 19 points in a game this season, and hasn't won by more than 11 points since last December. Still, the Dolphins are pretty awful on defense this year. (Oh, and that last big win? Dolphins 7, Patriots 28.)
APR and SRS only disagree on Jags @ Colts.
The Seahawks and 49ers are both favored to win. The Cardinals' stay alone at the top of the NFC West could be very short...
The APR matchup ratio of ρ=1.0044 for Steelers @ Eagles is pretty close to a toss-up.
