| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals @ Jaguars | Cardinals ρ=1.3071 | Cardinals* δ=18.0 | Cardinals -6½ |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.2679 | Seahawks δ=16.5 | Seahawks -13 |
| Lions @ Steelers | Lions ρ=1.2238 | Lions* δ=8.6 | Lions -1 |
| Browns @ Bengals | Bengals ρ=1.1176 | Bengals δ=6.2 | Bengals -5½ |
| Redskins @ Eagles | Eagles* ρ=1.1082 | Eagles δ=5.7 | Eagles -3 |
| Packers @ Giants | Packers ρ=1.1071 | Packers* δ=10.5 | Giants -6 |
| Colts @ Titans | Colts ρ=1.0754 | Colts* δ=3.6 | Colts -3 |
| 49ers @ Saints | Saints ρ=1.0693 | Saints δ=1.5 | Saints -3 |
| Chargers @ Dolphins | Chargers ρ=1.0417 | Chargers* δ=0.1 | Chargers -1 |
| Chiefs @ Broncos | Broncos* ρ=1.0387 | Broncos δ=4.2 | Broncos -7½ |
| Patriots @ Panthers | Panthers ρ=1.0364 | Panthers δ=5.9 | Panthers -1 |
| Ravens @ Bears | Bears ρ=1.0328 | Bears δ=1.5 | Bears -2½ |
| Jets @ Bills | Jets* ρ=1.0261 | Bills δ=2.5 | Bills -1 |
| Raiders @ Texans | Texans* ρ=1.0146 | Texans δ=2.4 | Texans -7 |
| Falcons @ Buccaneers | Falcons ρ=1.0103 | Buccaneers δ=0.2 | Falcons -1 |
Bye: Rams, Cowboys
Comments:
Another week of lots of agreement. Hopefully that doesn't mean yet another week of upsets.
According to pfr, the Packers haven't been 6-point underdogs since 2011 (they were 5-point underdogs week 1 at the 49ers this season). Maybe they can get Tolzien and/or Flynn coached up enough in time to make a difference, but right now it looks like the Packers' season is in a tailspin.
Another surprise to lay on someone if you time travel back to August. The Panthers are favored over the Patriots. And the way the Panthers' defense has been playing that could be a long, ugly game for the Patriots' offense.
The Texans are actually favored to win a game! To be fair, their losing streak has been a combination of fair-to-good opponents, injuries, and missed kicks. If they can avoid making too many mistakes, the Raiders are a team that they should be able to beat, especially at home.
SRS makes another rouge pick, and again, I'm not so sure it's wrong. The Buccaneers' defense will probably have to hold the Falcons under 21 points or so, but if they can do that, this is a winnable game for them.
