| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints @ Falcons | Saints ρ=1.3487 | Saints* δ=16.0 | Saints -7½ |
| 49ers @ Redskins | 49ers ρ=1.1959 | 49ers* δ=14.4 | 49ers -5 |
| Panthers @ Dolphins | Panthers ρ=1.1878 | Panthers* δ=11.0 | Panthers -4½ |
| Buccaneers @ Lions | Lions ρ=1.1832 | Lions δ=3.4 | Lions -9½ |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Chiefs ρ=1.1535 | Chiefs δ=8.1 | Chiefs -5 |
| Broncos @ Patriots | Broncos ρ=1.1185 | Broncos* δ=7.4 | Broncos -2½ |
| Vikings @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.1184 | Packers δ=8.5 | Packers -4½ |
| Jaguars @ Texans | Texans* ρ=1.1092 | Texans δ=9.3 | Texans -10 |
| Bears @ Rams | Bears ρ=1.0816 | Bears* δ=1.1 | Rams -1 |
| Jets @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.0808 | Ravens δ=7.2 | Ravens -4 |
| Cowboys @ Giants | Cowboys ρ=1.0691 | Cowboys* δ=7.0 | Giants -2½ |
| Titans @ Raiders | Titans ρ=1.0407 | Titans* δ=6.0 | Raiders -1 |
| Steelers @ Browns | Steelers* ρ=1.0095 | Browns δ=0.4 | Browns -1 |
| Colts @ Cardinals | Cardinals* ρ=1.0004 | Colts* δ=2.2 | Cardinals -1 |
Bye: Eagles, Bills, Seahawks, Bengals
Comments:
The Lions have a tendancy to flop against teams they should really beat (like, say, last week against the Steelers). They're probably safe against the Bucs at home, but 9½ points still seems like a lot to give.
On the other hand, I kinda feel like the Chiefs are gonna demolish the Chargers, especially playing that home. I think it will only take one special teams or defensive touchdown to beat that 5 point spread.
The Patriots don't often lose two in a row, they don't often lose at home, and they don't often lose to Peyton Manning. Maybe everyone's right to pick the Broncos here, but this feels like a low-confidence pick to me.
Can the Packers finally get a win without Rodgers this week? They're playing at home, against one of the worst teams in the league. If they can beat anybody, they can win this one.
The Texans should be able to beat the Jaguars. But I said that last week, too. They just really seem like a team that's forgotten how to win. Maybe they can beat the lowly Jaguars, but I'm not sure I'd want to give 10 points on that.
I can't really get a read on the Rams this season. Sometimes they seem like the same old (i.e. bad) Rams, and sometimes they come out and blow the doors of a team like the Colts. I feel like this is a game the Bears should be able to win, but the Bears and Rams both have been so inconsistent this season, I think it could go either way.
The Giants are playing at home, and working on a 4 game winning streak. On the other hand, those 4 wins have come against some pretty weak opponents. If the Cowboys can put together a solid game, I think they have a good chance for an upset.
