Wednesday, November 30, 2011

NFL Week 13 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Colts @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.5073
Patriots
δ=25.8
Patriots
-20
Rams @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.3477
49ers
δ=20.1
49ers
-13
Packers @
Giants
Packers
ρ=1.2962
Packers*
δ=15.1
Packers
-7
Ravens @
Browns
Ravens
ρ=1.2935
Ravens*
δ=14.7
Ravens
-7
Chiefs @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.2008
Bears
δ=18.4
Bears
-8
Jets @
Redskins
Jets
ρ=1.1498
Jets*
δ=7.4
Jets
-3
Cowboys @
Cardinals
Cowboys
ρ=1.1216
Cowboys*
δ=10.3
Cowboys
-4½
Broncos @
Vikings
Broncos
ρ=1.0965
Broncos*
δ=3.1
Vikings
-1½
Panthers @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0800
Buccaneers
δ=0.2
Buccaneers
-3
Titans @
Bills
Titans
ρ=1.0721
Titans*
δ=1.7
Bills
-1½
Falcons @
Texans
Texans*
ρ=1.0715
Texans
δ=5.9
Falcons
-1
Bengals @
Steelers
Steelers*
ρ=1.0692
Steelers
δ=1.5
Steelers
-7
Raiders @
Dolphins
Raiders
ρ=1.0226
Dolphins
δ=1.8
Dolphins
-2½
Eagles @
Seahawks
Eagles
ρ=1.0212
Eagles*
δ=5.2
Eagles
-2½
Lions @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.0175
Saints
δ=1.0
Saints
-9
Chargers @
Jaguars
Jaguars*
ρ=1.0053
Chargers*
δ=1.3
Chargers
-1½

Comments:

  • No line for Broncos @ Vikings at the moment. Maybe waiting for status on whether Adrian Peterson will play? Hopefully I can update by Saturday. Update: done. Apparently the issue was Von Miller, the Broncos' stand-out rookie LB, and a big part of their defensive resurgence. He had thumb surgery this week, although reportedly he will play.

  • Patriots -20 is the widest line of the season so far, beating out a couple games with lines of -15½. Teams the line favored by 10 or more points are 19-2 (straight up) so far this season.

  • The Ravens with another road game at a weak opponent. They lost at the Titans, Jaguars, and Seahawks. With this and two other road games left, the Ravens need to break that streak to keep ahead of the Steelers.

  • The Titans may have to win out to have a chance to finish ahead of the Texans. They'll need a lot more of those 100+ yard rushing games from Chris Johnson to do it.

  • The Bengals are this years team that is 1) clearly doing better than last year, but 2) taking advantage of the weaker opponents on their schedule. They may get to the playoffs, but if they do, they'll probably play on the road, at an opponent almost certaily better than any team they've beat so far this season.