Tuesday, November 15, 2011

NFL Week 10 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-5)

Jaguars @ Colts
Texans @ Buccaneers
Giants @ 49ers
Vikings @ Packers


Cardinals @ Eagles
When the Eagles play poorly, they don't go for half-measures. Their offense had 11 drives end with a punt, interception, or failed 4th down try. The defense did better, putting a touchdown on the board, and holding the Cardinals to 14 points for most of the game. But then, with the game on the line, they let John Skelton drive the Cardinals' offense 87 yards for what turned out to be the winning touchdown.
Rams @ Browns
The good news for the Browns was they held the Rams to 13 points, and managed to mount 5 sustained drives on offense. The bad news for the Browns is that those 5 drives ended with field goal attempts, and the last one missed. And once again, it's looking very much like the Browns won't make it past 5 wins on the season.
Chargers @ Raiders
The Chargers are not a good team. A lot of it, I think, comes down to attitude. Compare the Packers defense's response to giving up 38 points to the Chargers (in spite of coming away with a win) versus Philip Rivers shrugging off a 4-game losing streak by saying "it's been worse". The Raiders' motto "Just Win, Baby" may seem trite, but beats "it's been worse", in more ways than one.
Ravens @ Seahawks
Is there any figuring the Ravens this season? Another weak opponent, another breakdown. The Ravens weren't able to run the ball (just 75 yards on a defense that got shredded for 163 yards a week ago), they turned the ball over 3 times, and (most shocking of all), the Ravens defense was not able to stop the Seahawks from mounting a final drive that used up the final 5:52 of the game clock, denying their offense even a chance at a tying score.
Lions @ Bears
This was a classic win for the Bears: the defense scores, special teams scores, the opponent throws lots of passes to the Bears' defense, and the Bears' offense doesn't have to do anything except take advantage of the short fields the defense provides. As for the Lions, Matt Stafford looked really awful, filling the air with balls including 4 interceptions. The Lions need to start Shaun Hill until Stafford is healthy, or their playoff chances are going to slip away again.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-4, SRS 3-4, Line 4-3)

Broncos (APR, SRS) @ Chiefs (Line)
Speaking of attitudes in the locker room, I think we're seeing another example of that making a difference with Tim Tebow and the Broncos. The bad news is you have to wonder how many games the Broncos can play running the ball 50+ times. Surprisingly, it's not that uncommon, but nobody's done it even 4 times in a season since the '87 Bengals.
Titans (APR) @ Panthers (SRS, Line)
Have teams figured out how to defend against Cam Newton? After some gaudy passing stats early, his numbers have become much more ordinary. In this game, the Panthers only had two drives longer than 48 yards, and they both ended in a turnover. The Titans offense had some ugly stats on offense too (5 punts and an interception), but were able to sustain enough drives to win easily.
Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)
The Jets just didn't seem ready for this game. In spite of the (supposedly) weak Patriots defense, the Jets only mounted 3 sustained drives, one of which ended in a missed field goal. And whatever faults the Patriots may have, Tom Brady is still a very good quarterback, and Bill Belichick is still a very good coach, and they are still capable of putting a lot of points on the board.
Redskins (APR, SRS) @ Dolphins (Line)
The Redskins haven't won a game since Tim Hightower went down for the season. Since then, they've been averaging 53.4 rushing yards per game, putting a lot of pressure on their quarterback. As a result (and, as I suspected), the Redskins were no match for the not-as-bad-as-they-seemed Dolphins.
Steelers (Line) @ Bengals (APR, SRS)
The Steelers defense was able to hold Andy Dalton in check (50% completion rate, 170 yards, 2 tds and 2 interceptions). The Bengals were able to score 17 points, but it wasn't enough to keep up with the Steelers.
Bills (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
The Bills defense didn't have an anwer for the Cowboys passing game: Tony Romo threw for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns, including a lot of deep balls. Ryan Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, had a lot of trouble passing, overthrowing a lot of his receivers, and throwing 3 interceptions along the way.
Saints (SRS, Line) @ Falcons (APR)
For those playing along at home, the answer is "no, you do not go for it on 4th and 1 from your own 29 in overtime." The Falcons defense had forced the Saints to punt the previous two times they had the ball (including once in overtime). Especially playing at home, you've got to give your defense a chance to make a stop, even if they are facing Drew Brees.


APR 7-977-52-159.6%
SRS 7-979-50-161.2%
Line 8-884-46-064.6%