Tuesday, September 25, 2012

NFL Week 3 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-5)


Giants @ Panthers
Texans @ Broncos
Buccaneers @ Cowboys
Patriots @ Ravens


Chiefs @ Saints
The Saints' defense continues to be the worst in the league, allowing on average 477 yards per game. They've actually been getting worse every week. And while the Saints' offense has been putting up points, it hasn't been at the same rate as last year, and it hasn't been nearly enough.
Bengals @ Redskins
The Redskins' defense is 3rd-worst in the league in terms of yards allowed, 4th-worst in terms of points allowed. RG3 didn't have a great game, but it makes it really hard for any quarterback to come away with a win when his defense allows 38 points.
Lions @ Titans
The Lions' defense allowed Jake Locker to have a career day: 378 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 0 sacks, and 6 drives that ended in a score.
49ers @ Vikings
Somehow the Vikings' defense managed to make Alex Smith look like his old (bad) self. Smith had the fewest completions, fewest passing yards, fewest touchdowns, and most interceptions of the season.
Steelers @ Raiders
In the first half, the Steelers' defense did a pretty good job stopping the Raiders. But because of a lack of offensive production, they only lead by 3 at half time. In the second half, the Steeler's defense just came apart: the Raiders scored every time they had the ball. The Raiders only outscored the Steelers by 6 points in the second half, but because the game was so close at halftime, that's all they needed to win.

Split Picks: (APR: 4-3, SRS: 5-2, Line: 3-4)

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)
The Chargers first half on offense: punt, punt, fumble, interception. Their second half: field goal, interception, punt, punt, fumble, end of game. Nobody wins games like that.
Jets (Line) @ Dolphins (APR, SRS)
A close game that went to overtime, so there's a lot of things that could've made the difference here. I'm going to go with Ryan Tannehill's pasing numbers: 16/36 196 yards and 1 interception. The Dolphins will need better performances from Tannehill to win many games this year.
Bills (Line) @ Browns (APR, SRS)
Brandon Weeden had another bad day passing (27/43 237, 1 td and 2 interceptions). And the Browns only had 33 rushing yards. Somehow the Browns were in this game anyway, until the Bills finally put it away with a 4th-quarter touchdown.
Jaguars (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)
Another close game that really could've went either way. Some key stats: Andrew Luck threw more incompletions (24) than Blaine Gabbert threw passes (21). Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and a touchdown. And somehow the Colts' defense let Gabbert throw an 80-yard touchdown pass that put the Jaguars ahead to stay.
Packers (Line) @ Seahawks (APR, SRS)
Apart from the officiating, what did I think of the game? 1) There is absolutely no excuse for 8 first-half sacks. 2) Did McCarthy somehow forget about Cedric Benson for the first half? I was calling for more running almost from the start. 3) What should the defense do on a Hail Mary? Knock it down! Going for the interception there was just stupid.
Eagles (Line) @ Cardinals (APR, SRS)
The Cardinals' defense just shut the Eagles down in this game. The Eagles only had 2 drives longer than 45 yards (one of which ended with a fumble, returned the length of the field for a touchdown). And Kevin Kolb managed probably his best game as a Cardinal, taking advantages of the short fields the defense produced, and keeping the Eagles offense off the field.
Rams (APR) @ Bears (SRS, Line)
The Rams' defense might be OK, but their offense is terrible. 6 sacks, 17 incomplete passes, including 2 interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), and just one drive longer than 39 yards. Even with the best defense in the league, that won't win many games.


Not a great week for anybody. This is the second time since I started fspi that the Line had a result under 0.500. (Here's the first.)

APR 8-8 14-1843.8%
SRS 9-7 14-1843.8%
Line 7-9 17-1553.1%