| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions @ Titans | Lions ρ=1.8966 | Lions* δ=34.4 | Lions -3 |
| 49ers @ Vikings | 49ers ρ=1.6797 | 49ers* δ=25.1 | 49ers -7½ |
| Steelers @ Raiders | Steelers ρ=1.4024 | Steelers* δ=19.1 | Steelers -4½ |
| Falcons @ Chargers | Falcons ρ=1.3551 | Falcons* δ=10.0 | Chargers -3 |
| Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys ρ=1.2656 | Cowboys δ=3.8 | Cowboys -7 |
| Packers @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.2292 | Seahawks δ=2.2 | Packers -3 |
| Chiefs @ Saints | Saints ρ=1.1983 | Saints δ=4.6 | Saints -8½ |
| Jets @ Dolphins | Dolphins ρ=1.1530 | Dolphins δ=10.1 | Jets -3 |
| Texans @ Broncos | Texans* ρ=1.1501 | Texans* δ=13.4 | Texans -1½ |
| Eagles @ Cardinals | Cardinals ρ=1.1161 | Cardinals δ=6.1 | Eagles -4 |
| Bengals @ Redskins | Redskins ρ=1.1148 | Redskins δ=8.2 | Redskins -3½ |
| Patriots @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.0755 | Ravens δ=9.5 | Ravens -2½ |
| Bills @ Browns | Browns ρ=1.0626 | Browns δ=3.5 | Bills -3 |
| Giants @ Panthers | Giants ρ=1.0603 | Giants δ=5.7 | Giants -1½ |
| Rams @ Bears | Rams ρ=1.0581 | Bears δ=5.6 | Bears -8 |
| Jaguars @ Colts | Jaguars* ρ=1.0127 | Jaguars* δ=6.3 | Colts -3 |
Comments:
I guess the 49ers are only getting 7½ points because they're plaing on the road? The Vikings look to be well on their way to another early first round pick this year. Unless the 49ers stumble badly, this should be an easy win for them.
And the Lions are only getting 3 points over the Titans?! As I observed in the power rankings, only the Saints and Chiefs have given up more points than the Titans this year. The Titans' run defense looks particularly suspect; it could be a very good Sunday for Kevin Smith.
Winning at Seattle has been a challenge, even in the seasons when the Seahawks have struggled. The Packers' defense is going to have to have another dominating, wire-to-wire game to give them a chance to win. If the Seahawks manage to establish a 2-score lead, this game is probably over.
Losers of Chiefs @ Saints and Jaguars @ Colts should be excellent candidates to secure a top 5 draft pick next April.
I like APR's pick of the Cardinals this week. Especially playing at home, I think they can shut down the Eagles' offense. It's just a question of whether Kevin Kolb and the offense can put up enough points to put this one away.
We should get some idea this week of how good the Rams defense is. Jay Cutler could be in for another long day.
