Tuesday, October 8, 2013

NFL Week 5 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (3-5)

I didn't notice it until I started working on this post: except for Jaguars @ Rams, unanimous picks were all for the road team this week. On a "not a coincidence" note, this is one of the worst weeks for unanimous picks in the history of fspi.


Broncos @ Cowboys
Saints @ Bears
Jaguars @ Rams


Bills @ Browns
The Browns' 37 points in this game makes it look like a breakdown of the Bills' defense. But the Bills gave up a couple touchdowns (a punt return and an interception return) while the defense was on the sideline. Beyond that, it didn't help any that Bills' quarterback E.J Manuel left in the 3rd quarter, and that backup Jeff Tuel looked every bit the part of an unexperienced rookie backup.
Seahawks @ Colts
The bad news for the Seahawks is that they gave up more points than they have in almost 2 years. Still, they were in this game well into the second half. But they settled for field goals too many times, and that opened the door for the Colts to take over the game in the fourth quarter.
Panthers @ Cardinals
The Cardinals' defense and special teams took over this game. The Panthers' 2nd half: punt, safety, interception, punt, fumble, interception. The Panthers only had 2 drives longer than 48 yards, and none longer than 21 yards in the 2nd half. The short fields the defense set up, along with a solid running game, were enough to get the Cardinals to another win.
Patriots @ Bengals
Another bad week passing for Tom Brady (I'm sure the torrential rain didn't help anything), and this time, the Patriots running game wasn't able to bail them out. You just don't win if you can't even score 7 points.
Chargers @ Raiders
I don't know what's wrong with the Chargers, but they sure didn't look ready to play this game. Insted, Terrelle Pryor had a very good day (18/23 for 221 yards and 2 TDs, as well as 31 yards rushing), which helped them sprint out to a 24-3 lead. The Chargers managed a 4th-quarter rally, but a late redzone interception by Phillip Rivers put an end to that.

Split Picks: (APR 2-4, SRS 3-3, Line 3-3)

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
The Giants were only down a point at the start of the 4th quarter. Facing a team playing a very inexperienced backup quarterback, that should've been a pretty good situation for them. But then Eli Manning started throwing interceptions. The first two gave the Eagles a couple of touchdowns on short fields, and the last one ended any real hopes the Giants might have had to get back into the game.
Ravens (SRS) @ Dolphins (APR, Line)
I predicted that Ryan Tannehill would struggle against the Ravens defense, and a 50% completion percentage, 6.8 yards per attempt passing, and 6(!) sacks bear that out. It's impressive that in spite of that, the Dolphins were still in this to the end, and had a chance to tie in the final seconds of regulation.
Chiefs (SRS, Line) @ Titans (APR)
This game is a good example of how the Chiefs have earned their 5-0 record: their solid defense (#1 by points allowed) held the Titans to a season-low 17 points. On offense, they have a solid running attack (120 yards in this game), and enough passing yards from Alex Smith to keep things going. Add in a special teams score, and it was easily enough to give the Chiefs a win over their toughest opponent so far this season.
Jets (APR) @ Falcons (SRS, Line)
Should the Falcons be added to the list of teams that are way worse than they were last year? Their defense certainly looked very bad in this game. Geno Smith threw for 199 yards and 3 touchdowns, and only threw incomplete 4 times.
The Falcons found themselves in the uncomfortable position of playing from behind for most of the game. And when their offense did finally establish a 1-point lead late in the 4th quarter, the Falcons' defense proved utterly unable to stop the Jets from driving down the field, and kick the winning field goal as time expired.
Texans (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)
Matt Schaub had an ugly, ugly game. 3 interceptions, a completion rate barely over 50%, and under 5 yards per passing attempt added up to a long, futile game for the Texans' offense. The 49ers offense featured 177 rushing yards, which was enough to give them a pretty convincing win.
Lions (APR, SRS) @ Packers (Line)
Calvin Johnson didn't play in this game, and Matt Stafford just isn't the same quarterback when he's not available. The Packers played solid defense, ran the ball well, and didn't make any of the mistakes that cost them a win a couple weeks ago. The result was a long, and ultimately futile day for the Lions.


Another ugly week of picks. And only the Jets' improbable upset on MNF saves APR from a 4-10 week.

APR 5- 9 34-2755.7%
SRS 6- 8 36-2560.5%
Line 6- 8 36-2560.5%