| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ Bengals | Patriots ρ=1.3031 | Patriots* δ=12.3 | Patriots -1 |
| Broncos @ Cowboys | Broncos ρ=1.2828 | Broncos* δ=18.5 | Broncos -7½ |
| Saints @ Bears | Saints ρ=1.2245 | Saints* δ=13.8 | Saints -1 |
| Chargers @ Raiders | Chargers ρ=1.2128 | Chargers* δ=8.0 | Chargers -4 |
| Texans @ 49ers | Texans ρ=1.1339 | Texans* δ=6.8 | 49ers -7 |
| Lions @ Packers | Lions* ρ=1.1161 | Lions* δ=1.9 | Packers -7 |
| Eagles @ Giants | Eagles ρ=1.0918 | Eagles* δ=6.6 | Giants -1 |
| Seahawks @ Colts | Seahawks ρ=1.0806 | Seahawks* δ=6.4 | Seahawks -1 |
| Jaguars @ Rams | Rams ρ=1.0639 | Rams δ=3.3 | Rams -11 |
| Panthers @ Cardinals | Panthers* ρ=1.0576 | Panthers* δ=20.4 | Panthers -1½ |
| Bills @ Browns | Bills* ρ=1.0524 | Bills* δ=6.4 | Bills -4 |
| Ravens @ Dolphins | Dolphins ρ=1.0236 | Ravens* δ=3.2 | Dolphins -3 |
| Jets @ Falcons | Jets ρ=1.0212 | Falcons δ=0.8 | Falcons -9½ |
| Chiefs @ Titans | Titans ρ=1.0137 | Chiefs* δ=1.0 | Chiefs -2½ |
Bye: Steelers, Buccaneers, Vikings, Redskins
Comments:
The Line is favoring the Bengals over the Patriots? ...Wow. I will definitely double check that on Saturday. The Pats may be struggling right now, but I just haven't been that impressed with the Bengals so far this season.
Update: well, it's Saturday night, and it looks like the Line is now saying Pats -1. I don't want to make a precedent of this, but at least for this case, I'm going to switch the Line's official pick (because I think even without Gronk, and even without Vince Wilfork, this is a game the Pats should be favored to win).
I'm a little surprised the Broncos are only getting 7½ over the Cowboys. Given Dallas's bad defense, and the Broncos ability to score points, I would think the Broncos will cover that easily.
Texans @ 49ers is an interesting matchup of two teams both underperforming from last year. The winner might be able to use this as a springboard to turn around their season. The loser could be looking at a long, ugly slog to week 17 and the offseason.
And speaking of underperforming teams, it's gonna be real ugly in Green Bay if the Packers lose to the resurgent Lions this Sunday.
I'm not sure how good the Colts are right now, but I think they're better than the Texans. If the Seahawks can come away this week with another road win, it's gonna be another big step for them towards the NFC's top seed.
How bad are the Jaguars? The Rams haven't been favored by double digits since 2004. Still, while the Jaguars may be really bad, I wouldn't put it past the Rams to screw up this golden opportunity for a win, either.
Bills @ Browns is another interesting matchup, this time between a couple teams that look at least a little better than expected. Again, the winner of this game should come away with some nice momentum for the rest of the season.
I'm a little surprised the Line is taking the Dolphins over the Ravens. The Ravens defense may not be what it once was, but it's still decent, and I think Ryan Tannehill could be in for another tough game on Sunday.
I'm also surprised the line is giving 9½ points to the Falcons this week. They didn't win by that much over the Rams, and I think (last week's result against the Titans not withstanding), the Jets still have a respectable defense.
