| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.6446 | Broncos δ=33.9 | Broncos -26½ |
| Giants @ Bears | Bears ρ=1.3165 | Bears δ=17.8 | Bears -7½ |
| Steelers @ Jets | Jets ρ=1.2931 | Jets δ=5.7 | Jets -2½ |
| Raiders @ Chiefs | Chiefs ρ=1.2213 | Chiefs δ=8.5 | Chiefs -8½ |
| Colts @ Chargers | Colts ρ=1.1716 | Colts* δ=14.9 | Colts -1½ |
| Saints @ Patriots | Saints ρ=1.1156 | Saints* δ=9.3 | Patriots -1 |
| Rams @ Texans | Texans ρ=1.1038 | Texans δ=4.7 | Texans -7 |
| Titans @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.0936 | Seahawks δ=9.4 | Seahawks -13½ |
| Bengals @ Bills | Bengals* ρ=1.0817 | Bengals* δ=4.1 | Bengals -7 |
| Redskins @ Cowboys | Cowboys* ρ=1.0695 | Cowboys δ=6.7 | Cowboys -5½ |
| Lions @ Browns | Lions* ρ=1.0286 | Browns δ=1.4 | Lions -2½ |
| Panthers @ Vikings | Vikings ρ=1.0156 | Panthers* δ=4.9 | Vikings -2½ |
| Eagles @ Buccaneers | Eagles ρ=1.0130 | Buccaneers δ=1.7 | Eagles -1 |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | Cardinals* ρ=1.0074 | 49ers δ=5.9 | 49ers -11 |
| Packers @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.0035 | Packers* δ=1.7 | Packers -2½ |
Bye: Falcons, Dolphins
Comments:
Pro Football Reference has A few games on record with a line of 21 points or more (although they don't have lines prior to about 1978 or so). None of the favored teams covered, although a couple came close.
This week may be the Steelers' best chance for a win all season. If they emerge from the Meadowlands with a loss, it'll be time to start wondering if they can make it to 4 wins, let alone 8.
I'm a little surprised the Patriots are favored this week, especially after how they struggled to score points against the Bengals. The Saints have been scoring points in bunches, and if this turns into a shoot out, I don't think the Patriots have the offense to keep up.
The Panthers are anther team facing one of the weakest opponents left on their schedule. At 1-3, their season is already slipping away, and any hope of getting things turned around has to start with beating the Vikings.
The Cardinals are 1-7 in their last 8 games against the 49ers. Look for that trend to continue. I suspect Carson Palmer is going to be the second quarterback in a row to have a very tough day facing that defense,
Clay Matthews is out with a broken thumb, reportedly for at least a month. The rest of the Packers are going to have to step up if they don't want to be another team with a disappointing season.
