| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans @ Chiefs | Chiefs ρ=1.3667 | Chiefs δ=19.5 | Chiefs -6½ |
| Chargers @ Jaguars | Chargers ρ=1.2911 | Chargers* δ=16.8 | Chargers -7½ |
| Ravens @ Steelers | Ravens ρ=1.2478 | Ravens* δ=10.5 | Steelers -1 |
| Browns @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.2029 | Packers δ=7.4 | Packers -10½ |
| Patriots @ Jets | Patriots ρ=1.1989 | Patriots* δ=10.7 | Patriots -3½ |
| Bills @ Dolphins | Dolphins ρ=1.1364 | Dolphins δ=5.8 | Dolphins -8 |
| Broncos @ Colts | Broncos ρ=1.1214 | Broncos* δ=5.1 | Broncos -7 |
| Seahawks @ Cardinals | Seahawks* ρ=1.1209 | Seahawks* δ=11.0 | Seahawks -6½ |
| Buccaneers @ Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.1102 | Falcons δ=5.2 | Falcons -7 |
| Bears @ Redskins | Bears ρ=1.0880 | Bears* δ=4.5 | Redskins -1 |
| Bengals @ Lions | Lions ρ=1.0564 | Lions δ=1.2 | Lions -2½ |
| Rams @ Panthers | Panthers ρ=1.0554 | Panthers δ=10.3 | Panthers -6 |
| 49ers @ Titans | 49ers ρ=1.0478 | 49ers* δ=4.5 | 49ers -4 |
| Cowboys @ Eagles | Cowboys ρ=1.0464 | Cowboys* δ=7.7 | Eagles -2½ |
| Vikings @ Giants | Vikings ρ=1.0297 | Vikings* δ=5.0 | Giants -3½ |
Bye: Saints, Raiders
Comments:
Why is the line taking the Steelers over the Ravens? Yeah, the Steelers played a little better last week, but it's gonna take more than that to beat the Ravens, even in Pittsburgh.
10½ seems like a wide line for the Packers. They haven't been lighting up the scoreboard lately, and with Randall Cobb out and James Jones hurt, it doesn't seem like they're about ready to start breaking any scoring records.
The good news for the Packers is that they've been running the ball really well. In fact, as of this week, only the Eagles and Redskins have a better yards per attempt rushing. That, and some solid defensive efforts, have produced a couple low-scoring victories for them.
Cowboys or Eagles? Neither squad seems like a very good team. I think the Cowboys are probably at least marginally better, but not enough that it seems crazy for the Line to be taking the home standing Eagles. This definitely seems like one of those games that will go whichever way the turnovers bounce.
The Giants have turned the ball over a league-leading 23 times so far this season. The Vikings have gotten 12 turnovers from their opponents. Of course, the Vikings have lost 12 turnovers too. So if you like interceptions and lost fumbles, this could be the game for you. And now it's reportedly Josh Freeman starting for the Vikings this week. If the Giants blow this chance, I'll have to re-evaluate my thoughts on them going 0-16 this year.
