Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Week 16 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-4)

49ers @ Seahawks
Rams @ Steelers
Browns @ Ravens
Dolphins @ Patriots
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Cardinals @ Bengals
Jaguars @ Titans
Bears @ Packers
Falcons @ Saints


Broncos @ Bills
One of the overlooked aspects of the Broncos winning streak has been the emergence of Von Miller as a major force for their defense. But in the last two games, Von Miller has been a non-factor, and (probably not coincidentally), they've allowed 40+ points in each game. It's also no surprise that the style of offense they play with Tim Tebow doesn't do well in high scoring games.
Texans @ Colts
The Texans' numbers for this game look pretty good: T.J. Yates was 13/16 for 132 yards and no picks. Arian Foster ran for 158 yards. But because of penalties, sacks, and a turnover, too many of their drives ended either with a field goal, or no score at all, and that left the door open for the Colts offense to win the game on a late touchdown.
Giants @ Jets
The Jets just couldn't move the ball on offense. They only had 4 drives longer than 22 yards, only one of those ended in a score. It wasn't a great game for the Giants, either (they were 4 of 15 converting 3rd downs, and Eli Manning only completed 9 passes). But it was enough to get by the Jets.
Vikings @ Redskins
The Redskins had more yards and more first downs than the Vikings in this game. But they also had more penalty yards, and more incompletions than the Vikings. The result was they mostly settled for field goals, while the Vikings were driving for touchdowns. As a result, the Redskins were playing catch-up most of the game, including when time finally expired.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-2, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Raiders (SRS) @ Chiefs (APR, Line)
Kyle Orton lead the Chiefs offense to another 400+ yard game (for just the 3rd time this season). But two interceptions and 88 penalty yards meant that (like last week) those yards didn't translate into a lot of points. The Chiefs only tied the game on a late touchdown, and in overtime, the Raiders won the toss, and one long completion got them well within Janikowski's field goal range.
Chargers (APR) @ Lions (SRS, Line)
I think APR has the Chargers overrated—they only broke their 6-game losing streak when they reached perhaps the softest part of their schedule, culminating with a win over the can't-win-on-the-road Ravens. This held the Chargers up in APR's rankings long enough to give them a slight edge over the Lions, who slumped in the rankings due to a 4-5 streak.
Eagles (APR) @ Cowboys (SRS, Line)
When the Giants' victory over the Jets went final late in the first quarter of this game, it eliminated the Eagles from the playoffs, and meant that the NFC East would come down to Sunday's Cowboys @ Giants game.


SRS again closes to ½ a game of the Line.

APR 10-6141-82-163.2%
SRS 11-5146-77-165.4%