Wednesday, December 28, 2011

NFL Week 17 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Bills @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.3488
Patriots
δ=10.7
Patriots
-11½
Buccaneers @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.3432
Falcons
δ=13.1
Falcons
-12
49ers @
Rams
49ers
ρ=1.3351
49ers*
δ=20.3
49ers
-10½
Steelers @
Browns
Steelers
ρ=1.2433
Steelers*
δ=11.4
Steelers
-7
Panthers @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.2057
Saints
δ=10.6
Saints
-9½
Redskins @
Eagles
Eagles*
ρ=1.2015
Eagles
δ=6.9
Eagles
-10
Lions @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.1315
Packers
δ=5.2
Lions
-3½
Titans @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.1120
Texans
δ=6.3
Titans
-2½
Ravens @
Bengals
Ravens
ρ=1.0686
Ravens*
δ=5.2
Ravens
-1½
Colts @
Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=1.0620
Jaguars
δ=5.7
Jaguars
-3½
Jets @
Dolphins
Dolphins*
ρ=1.0577
Jets*
δ=0.2
Dolphins
-1
Seahawks @
Cardinals
Seahawks
ρ=1.0525
Seahawks*
δ=3.7
Cardinals
-2½
Chiefs @
Broncos
Broncos*
ρ=1.0496
Broncos
δ=3.6
Broncos
-3
Chargers @
Raiders
Chargers
ρ=1.0440
Chargers*
δ=5.0
Raiders
-3
Bears @
Vikings
Bears
ρ=1.0386
Bears*
δ=7.7
Vikings
-1
Cowboys @
Giants
Cowboys
ρ=1.0093
Cowboys*
δ=2.3
Giants
-2½

Comments:

  • At the moment, I can't find a line for Bears @ Vikings except "pick 'em". Perhaps they are waiting to see if Ponder will be able to play. Update: looks like I was right. Word has come out that Ponder will play, and suddenly there's a line.

  • On the NFC side, the playoff teams are set, except for the NFC East winner. But there's still some jockeying for position to be done. The 49ers still need a win to clinch the #2 seed, and the Saints will want to win in case they don't. The Lions will need a win to clinch the #5 seed, and a trip to the NFC East champion. The #6 seed will have to go to the Saints (or possibly the 49ers) on wildcard weekend.

  • The AFC has four teams vying for the final wildcard spot, which makes the Ravens @ Bengals game one of the most interesting matchups of the weekend. If the Bengals win, they're in (and also open up the door for the Steelers to win the AFC North and clinch the #2 seed). If the Bengals lose, it's a free-for-all for that last wildcard spot.

  • The Packers and Texans are the only two playoff teams that have their seeds clinched, which means Lions @ Packers and Titans @ Texans are the games most likely to be affected by teams resting their starters.

  • The 49ers get their widest spread of the season. They haven't won on the road by more than 8 points. Of course, they haven't played anyone near as bad as the Rams on the road, either.